This Sunday, the young head of the PNV list for Álava, Joseba Díez Antxustegi, aged 31, accompanied the candidate for Lehendakari Imanol Pradales in the square where he had his “first kalimotxo” in Araia, a village of just over a thousand inhabitants surrounded by mountains on the edge of the Alava plain. 60 kilometers away, in the same province of Álava, Javier de Andrés, the PP candidate, said he felt “at home in Rivabellosa.” On Monday, his leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will participate in a meeting with self-employed workers in Vitoria, where he already held a rally on Friday, a day before the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez; the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, and the second Vice President, Minister of Labor and leader of Sumar, Yolanda Díaz, did the same in the same capital of Álava. Both the PNV and EH Bildu started their campaign in Vitoria. And the latter party has decided that their candidate for Lehendakari, Pello Otxandiano, although from Biscay, will be the head of the list for Álava.
The electoral system is a key factor in the upcoming Basque elections on April 21, focusing attention on the least populated of the three Basque provinces. The PNV has always defended a confederal model that could potentially challenge its hegemony on April 21. The distribution of seats in the Parliament of Vitoria among the three historical territories, according to the Gernika Estatute, gave 25 seats to each territory, although Biscay quadruples the population of Álava and Gipuzkoa doubles it. This means that a vote in Biscay, where the PNV is stronger, is worth almost half of one in Gipuzkoa and four times less than one in Álava. While the PNV had never considered reforming the electoral system before, their dominance is now under threat.
In the main battle between the PNV and EH Bildu for victory, it is almost certain that the PNV will win in Biscay, and EH Bildu in Gipuzkoa. However, the outcome in Álava, where both parties are expected to win nine seats according to the Vasque Sociometer, is much more uncertain. Historically, Álava has been the least nationalist province, particularly in general elections. In recent times, it has also shown more left-wing tendencies. This shift is more pronounced in Vitoria, where EH Bildu’s social-focused rhetoric has resonated strongly with the working-class and young population in the new peripheral neighborhoods.
A slight increase in votes in Álava due to the lower cost of a seat could lead to significant changes in the distribution of seats. Since the end of ETA, EH Bildu has seen a positive trend in a province that was previously seen as hostile territory for the coalition. This structural vote for EH Bildu in Álava could potentially shift the balance towards the left, which would be noteworthy given the historical context of the province. The dissatisfaction with the PNV’s management, particularly in areas like Osakidetza, which was exposed during the pandemic, is something that EH Bildu is aiming to capitalize on in Álava.
A strong result in the province would also be a validation of the “Alavese model,” as Otegi refers to the strategy that was first tested here in 2016 and later taken to Madrid, where votes were exchanged to keep the right-wing parties out of power. Vitoria, as the seat of the Basque Parliament and Government, represents the institutional power of the PNV. Therefore, a victory for EH Bildu in Álava would hold symbolic significance beyond just electoral arithmetic. It would represent a challenge to the established power structures and a potential shift in the political landscape of the region.
