In February 2023, the government of the Philippines decided to change tactics and publicize their encounters with the Chinese military in an effort to build international support and awareness, as well as to force Beijing to face reputational consequences. Publicizing China’s actions, combined with Manila’s deepened military alliance with the U.S., has constrained Beijing’s ability to escalate matters at sea but raised the risks of Chinese economic retaliation and U.S. involvement. A main point of conflict between China and the Philippines is sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, where clashes involving aggressive maneuvering and water cannons have taken place. Mandarin Coastal Guard blocked medical evacuation, the Philippines says, barbaric and inhumane.
Huddled in the presidential situation room last year, senior Philippines officials faced a stark choice. Military and intelligence leaders watched as coast guard officers showed photos of what the agency said was a military-grade laser that China had pointed at a Philippines ship in disputed waters days earlier. Eduardo Ano, the national security adviser and chair of the South China Sea taskforce, had to decide whether to release the pictures and risk Beijing’s ire, or refrain from aggravating his giant neighbor. In response to Reuters questions, China’s foreign ministry said the Philippines had been stoking tensions with provocative actions at sea in an attempt to infringe on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. China, it said, would defend its interests while handling the dispute peacefully through dialogue.
The February 2023 meeting occurred days after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr granted the U.S. access to four more military bases in the Philippines, rekindling defense ties that had suffered under his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. China, whose claims to most of the sea were invalidated by an international tribunal in 2016, says Philippine vessels illegally intrude into waters surrounding disputed shoals. China has warned Marcos against misjudging the situation and actively voiced its support for the dispute. In response, the U.S. has been supporting the Philippines in calling attention to China’s disregard for international law, while also stating its willingness to support the Philippines if it faces economic coercion from China.
The conflict over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal continues to escalate, with the Philippine navy maintaining a presence on Second Thomas Shoal to reinforce Manila’s sovereignty claims. Chinese ships have blockaded the area and used water cannons against Philippine vessels. The number of Chinese vessels around Second Thomas Shoal has dramatically increased, raising concerns about a potential escalation of hostilities. The Philippines fears a fatal accident could lead to open conflict, as it tries to avoid the economic pressure it faced from China in the past.
China has expressed irritation with the transparency push by the Philippines, accusing Manila of playing the victim to deceive international public opinion. However, the Philippines has been working to solidify its alliance with the U.S. and other countries to garner international support for its position. Both countries made it clear that their defense treaty also covers the coast guard. Some Chinese scholars believe that the situation is at an impasse and that China will continue to be reactive at flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal. Ultimately, the conflict in the South China Sea remains a complex and sensitive issue with significant implications for regional stability.
Overall, the Philippines’ decision to publicize their encounters with the Chinese military has led to increased international attention to the conflict in the South China Sea. This strategy has constrained Beijing’s ability to escalate matters at sea but has also raised the risk of Chinese economic retaliation and U.S. involvement. The conflict over sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal continues to escalate, with both countries engaging in aggressive actions to assert their claims. The Philippines faces the challenge of avoiding economic pressure from China while seeking to peacefully resolve the dispute through international support and diplomatic efforts. The situation remains tense and volatile, with the potential for further escalation unless a resolution is found.
