A recent poll conducted in Iowa by the Des Moines Register newspaper has shown Vice President Harris leading Republican nominee Donald Trump by three points in the 2024 presidential race. This is seen as a stunning reversal, with Harris at 47% and Trump at 44%. This marks a drastic shift from previous polls where Trump had a lead over Harris, with an 18-point lead over President Biden in June before he dropped out of the race.
The polling company, Selzer & Co., conducted the survey of 808 likely voters between Oct. 28 and Oct. 31, with a margin of error of 3.4%. National polls have consistently shown these two candidates in a near deadlock, making the Iowa results particularly surprising. Trump previously won Iowa in both 2020 and 2016, making it a traditionally conservative state.
The late turn towards Harris in Iowa appears to be driven by women and independent voters, with 56% of women and 52% of men supporting the vice president. Additionally, voters 65 and older, especially senior women, are also backing the Democrat. More than 553,000 voters have already cast their ballots in Iowa, with nearly equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats showing up to vote according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Overall, this poll reflects a significant shift in public opinion in Iowa, as Vice President Harris has overtaken Republican nominee Donald Trump in a traditionally conservative state. The survey conducted by Selzer & Co. and published by the Des Moines Register shows Harris leading by three points, with strong support from women and independent voters. The national polls have consistently shown a close race between the two candidates, making the unexpected results in Iowa even more surprising.
The unexpected reversal in the Iowa poll has caught many by surprise, including the polling company and political analysts. Trump had previously held a four-point lead over Harris in September, and a significant lead over President Biden in June before he exited the race. The shift towards Harris in Iowa is attributed to the support of women, independent voters, and voters 65 and older, particularly senior women who are backing the Democratic nominee.
The early voter turnout in Iowa indicates a nearly equal number of Republicans and Democrats have cast their ballots, further emphasizing the close race in the state. With the election drawing near, the results of the Iowa poll highlight the potential for a changing political landscape and unexpected outcomes in the 2024 presidential race. Vice President Harris’s lead over Donald Trump in a state like Iowa, which historically leans conservative, shows a shift in voter preferences and sets the stage for a closely contested election in this crucial swing state.
