The Catalan elections are always crucial for Spanish politics, but since 2017, they have been especially decisive. The outcome of these elections will not only determine the future of Pedro Sanchez’s government, but will also judge the recent history of Spain. If the independentists do not secure a majority and Salvador Illa wins comfortably, it will confirm that Sanchez’s approach was correct, while Rajoy’s policies were wrong. However, if the independentists do gain a majority and potentially elect Carles Puigdemont as president, it would be seen as a significant failure for Sanchez. The president has been heavily involved in the campaign, working to prevent this outcome.
There is a strong belief within the PSOE that Illa will win comfortably, but the focus is also on preventing the independentists from securing a majority. This outcome is seen as crucial for the government to make significant progress and solidify its position. Talks within the government are centered around Catalonian politics, with discussions about potential agendas and policies to be implemented. The aim is to start negotiating and implementing key measures, including social programs and budget proposals. The success of the government’s agenda is heavily dependent on the outcome of the Catalan elections.
Despite concerns within the government, it is believed that Sanchez’s position is not at risk in these elections. The complex political landscape makes it difficult for any significant changes in government to occur. The risk of a motion of no confidence is minimal, and no party wants to be associated with forming a government with PP and Vox. The elections in Catalonia may complicate the government’s agenda, but are not likely to bring it down. However, the independentists believe that the outcome is uncertain and that they hold significant sway in the political landscape.
The focus on Catalonia in Spanish politics highlights the importance of these elections beyond the region itself. The results will have implications for the broader political landscape and will have a significant impact on the ongoing political battles between the PSOE and PP. The PP aims to rebuild its political presence in Catalonia, with Feijoo leading the charge to regain relevancy in the region. However, their role in these elections is not central, and their main goal is to establish a competitive position against Sánchez in future national elections.
The possibility of a repeat election is not favored by many in the top levels of Spanish politics. While forming a government may be challenging, the parties at a disadvantage are not likely to push for another round of elections. The focus is on positioning and negotiating for power in Catalonia, which will in turn shape the trajectory of the government at the national level. The outcome of the Catalan elections will not only determine the distribution of power in Catalonia, but also set the stage for the future of Spanish politics.
