The absence of the regular Lebanese army in the current crisis due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah raises concerns about state institutions’ ability to handle a major conflict. The Lebanese army is not only meant to defend the country’s borders but is also subject to the instructions of the Lebanese government. With extreme divisions within the government, whoever commands the army must make decisions that they deem suitable. If the conflict escalates into a ground operation, the entire Middle East could be at risk.
Lebanon’s delicate political balance makes it challenging for the army to take action in the face of the conflict. The Lebanese army is constitutionally subordinate to political institutions with conflicting views, which complicates its role in the conflict. Resolution 1701 mandates the Lebanese armed forces to work in conjunction with UNIFIL in the south, but it is unclear how they would handle a major military attack or disarm Hezbollah. Any action against Hezbollah could prompt a civil war, making it a highly sensitive issue for the Lebanese army.
Hezbollah’s armed wing operates independently from the Lebanese army and has a strong ballistic capacity, creating a complex dynamic in the conflict. The Lebanese regular army has a typical military structure but lacks adequate weaponry, making it ill-equipped to handle the conflict. The European Union has provided support to the Lebanese army to enhance its capabilities, but political decisions within Lebanon hinder its deployment.
The Lebanese army stationed in the Bekaa Valley faces challenges in operating on new fronts and could pose political problems for its financial sponsors if directly involved in a ground conflict. The army’s lack of missile defense capabilities further complicates its ability to respond to Israeli missile attacks. Historically, the Lebanese army has avoided direct confrontation with the IDF and has not used force to disarm Hezbollah, despite the obligations of Resolution 1701.
The complexity of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, along with internal divisions within Lebanon’s political institutions, presents a significant challenge for the Lebanese army. The army’s limited capabilities and the risk of sparking a civil war if it takes action against Hezbollah further complicate the situation. The need for clear objectives and well-defined orders, as well as the potential scenarios in which the army may be involved, add layers of uncertainty to the conflict. The Lebanese army’s role in the current crisis remains a contentious issue, highlighting the broader challenges facing state institutions in Lebanon.
