A rapid analysis conducted by World Weather Attribution, a group of international scientists, has revealed that human-caused climate change has made Spain’s rainfall about 12% heavier and doubled the likelihood of intense storms like the recent deluge in Valencia. The monstrous flash floods in Spain have resulted in at least 158 fatalities, with 155 deaths confirmed in the Valencia region alone. Search and rescue efforts are ongoing to locate missing individuals and additional victims. The group of scientists noted that a warmer atmosphere due to global warming can hold more moisture, leading to heavier downpours, and their analysis indicated a significant increase in the intensity and likelihood of similar events due to climate change.
The scientists focused on historical observations of rainfall in the region, which showed that one-day bursts of rain have been increasing as a result of emissions from fossil fuel burning warming the planet. While the analysis was not a full attribution study since it did not involve simulating the event in a world without human-caused warming, the experts estimated that similar events have become 12% more intense and about twice as likely as they would have been in a pre-industrial climate. With global temperatures already having risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the mid-1800s, the world is on pace to reach 3.1 degrees Celsius, but if nations fulfill their promises to the United Nations, warming could be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius.
According to WWA expert Clair Barnes, who researches extreme weather events and climate change at Imperial College London, the recent flooding in Spain underscores the need to address climate change urgently. Barnes emphasized that with current projections indicating a potential warming of 2.6 degrees Celsius within this century, the world is only halfway to what could be considered the “new normal.” The impact of climate change was further highlighted by the occurrence of a powerful typhoon making landfall in Taiwan shortly after the floods in Spain, demonstrating the hazardous consequences of just 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming. The events in Spain and Taiwan serve as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by climate change and the urgent need for collective action to mitigate its effects.
The United Nations Environment Programme’s annual Emissions Gap Report, released last week, revealed that global temperatures have already risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the mid-1800s, surpassing previous estimates. The report also projected that without significant action, the world is on track to reach a temperature increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius, highlighting the critical importance of meeting international targets to limit warming to 2.6 degrees Celsius. Ben Clarke, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, emphasized the severity of climate change impacts already being felt with just 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming, citing the consecutive extreme weather events in Spain and Taiwan as evidence of the urgent need for climate action.
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives support from various private foundations, with AP maintaining editorial independence in all content creation. The coverage of climate-related events, such as the recent floods in Spain, underscores the importance of understanding the role of climate change in extreme weather events and the need for global cooperation to address the challenges posed by a warming planet. The analysis by World Weather Attribution sheds light on the influence of human activities on the intensification of rainfall events, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities worldwide.
