The Lancet kamikaze drone has been identified as one of Russia’s most effective weapons in the conflict in Ukraine, with the ability to strike from over 30 miles away. Recent production of the Lancet has significantly increased, with over 300 Lancet attacks carried out in May alone. Despite the growing numbers, the Ukrainians are finding ways to reduce the Lancet’s impact through shortcomings in the automated guidance system.
The Lancet is produced by ZALA Group, a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov concern, and is a catapult-launched loitering munition with a distinctive double-X wing layout. It carries both daylight and thermal imaging cameras, as well as an anti-tank warhead for precise strikes. Despite previous issues with production, numbers of Lancets have been on the rise, with a record number of attacks recorded in May.
While the Lancet is often used for counter-battery fire targeting Ukrainian artillery, its effectiveness in this role has been questioned. A study by LostArmour showed a kill rate of only about 12% in attacks on artillery, with many instances of unclear damage or misses. The report also highlighted instances where artillery hit by Lancets remained operational, suggesting that the drones may not be as effective as once thought.
The Lancet’s automated guidance system, powered by U.S.-made chips from NVIDIA, has raised concerns about its accuracy. The system has been involved in about a quarter of recent strikes, but there have been instances where the drone failed to lock on to targets properly. Both sides are working on improving their optical lock-on systems to overcome challenges like radio jamming, suggesting that the Lancet’s guidance system may need further refinement.
Confirmation of kills on towed artillery targets presents a challenge, as secondary explosions may not always occur. Ukrainian intelligence recently revealed dummy artillery targets made to deceive Russian drones, raising questions about the validity of some Lancet strikes. Ukraine has also been developing its own FPVs to counter Russian artillery, with reports of successful strikes on Russian targets at ranges of over 12 miles.
Despite the growing number of Lancet attacks, Ukraine’s production of FPVs appears to be outpacing Russia’s drone capabilities, with over 3,000 FPVs reportedly produced daily. While the Lancet remains a potent weapon in the conflict, other munitions such as the Ukrolancet and Wild Hornets drones are proving to be more effective in targeting Russian artillery. As the conflict continues to escalate, the balance of power may shift in favor of Ukraine’s quantity and quality of munitions.
