Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is aiming for a path to the White House despite facing pressure from the Biden and Trump campaigns, labeling his candidacy as a potential “spoiler.” Kennedy believes that reaching 33% support in the election is all that is necessary to secure a win. He asserts that it is a three-way race, potentially expanding to a five-way race when including candidates like Dr. Cornel West and Dr. Jill Stein. Kennedy claims to be close to that 33% mark in various states and believes he has an edge over Biden and Trump with young voters.
Kennedy’s internal polling indicates promising results, showing him polling better than any recent third-party candidate since Ross Perot in the 1990s, particularly among voters under 35. However, public polls still show him trailing behind Trump and Biden overall, but gaining significant support from the younger demographic. A Quinnipiac poll released last week revealed Kennedy with 16% support compared to Trump and Biden’s 37%. Kennedy was especially popular with voters aged 18-34, garnering 19% support, with Trump leading at 34% and Biden at 30%.
Despite Kennedy’s appeal to younger voters and concern over potential impact on Biden’s re-election chances, particularly with Latino voters, the Democratic National Committee has launched an effort to counter the threat posed by third-party candidates like Kennedy. This includes legal challenges and opposition research to combat their influence. On the other hand, Trump has criticized Kennedy as a “wasted protest vote” on social media and has directed his campaign to target Kennedy as a “radical f—–g Kennedy,” associating him with left-wing extremists. Furthermore, Biden publicly endorsed Kennedy’s family members who chose to support him over their own kin, alongside the DNC’s actions.
There are concerns that Kennedy could be a “plant” intended to boost either the Democratic or Republican side, accusations that he vehemently denies. Former Bernie Sanders pollster Ben Tulchin has identified Kennedy’s hard-edge economic populist message as appealing to young and Latino voters dissatisfied with the status quo and potentially opening up support for a third-party candidate like Kennedy. With the prevalence of younger voters and their tendencies toward a populist message, there is a recognition of the threat Kennedy poses to the traditional two-party system.
Kennedy’s unexpected surge in support among young voters, as evident in recent polls, has raised alarms among political strategists regarding potential implications for the upcoming election. As the race heats up, the battle between the major parties and independent candidates like Kennedy intensifies, with efforts on both sides to discredit and undermine each other. The 2024 presidential campaign is shaping up to be a contentious and unpredictable contest, with Kennedy’s candidacy presenting a wildcard that could significantly impact the final outcome of the election.
