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Only days after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, he dialed up the heat on Russia with a threat of sanctions, tariffs, and negotiating “the hard way” if Russian President Vladimir Putin fails to come to the table for a peace deal with Ukraine.Trump has repeatedly promised to push for a swift peace settlement once in office, prompting fears from some that he might pressure Kyiv towards painful concessions or — at worst — what would amount to a surrender.His recent comments, however, suggest that Trump could be ready to take a hard line with Russia.”In negotiations, it’s about who needs a deal the most,” says Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at the Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program. “I think the leverage is with Trump, not Putin.”Trump has leverage in economic, military, and diplomatic terms — the main question is his willingness to use it.Russia’s economy is showing signs of weakness, making Putin more vulnerable than ever to additional economic pressure like sanctions. Ramped-up support for Ukraine on the battlefield could add to Russia’s mounting losses and further incentivize dealmaking, as would uniting support among allies and squeezing Russia on the diplomatic stage.”A long war doesn’t hurt Trump very much. There’s no huge cost to the U.S. economy. No U.S. lives are in danger,” said Ash, adding that a large portion of U.S. military aid has been reinvested in its domestic defense industry. “Trump can carry on, whereas for Putin, it just gets more difficult for him the longer it goes.”‘Russia’s economy is not doing well’The Trump administration is already signaling that sanctions are at the forefront of their negotiating plans with Russia.”If a deal is not reached, I will have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and other participating countries,” Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social Jan. 22.
“If a deal is not reached, I will have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and other participating countries.”
Earlier in the month, Bloomberg reported that the administration has begun forming its sanctions strategy and will likely take one of two approaches: offering targeted relief to Russian oil producers to incentivize negotiations or significantly expanding sanctions to ramp up pressure.Sanctions are “the best leverage we have,” said Edward Fishman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and author of the forthcoming book “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.”While the Group of Seven countries and the previous U.S. administration under President Joe Biden imposed heavy economic sanctions on Russia shortly after the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they included significant carve-outs aimed at not disrupting the global energy markets.After a contraction in 2022, aggressive defense spending contributed to Russia’s economic growth for the past two years, suggesting the effect of the sanctions has reduced after Russia’s economy adjusted and discovered workarounds.But Russia’s economy is now showing cracks, said Fishman, and, “in the last 10 days of the Biden administration, the U.S. imposed pretty significant sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sector that meaningfully enhanced the pressure on Russia’s economy.”The last-minute sanctions from the outgoing administration are likely intended to provide Trump with a strong negotiating hand in future talks. The new sanctions close many of the energy loopholes and could reduce Russian oil exports by between half a million and a million barrels per day in the short term.Russian President Vladimir Putin grimaces during his meeting with participants of the Russia International Exhibition-Forum at the All-Russian Exhibition Center in Moscow, Russia, on July 8, 2024. (Contributor / Getty Images)”Russia’s economy is not doing very well,” Fishman said, pointing to projections of stalled growth in 2025 and high inflation and interest rates. “Turning up the heat now even more on Russia could really be what we need to get Russia to negotiate.”A powerful sanctions strategy will first require convincing Putin that the U.S. has no plans to reduce current sanctions or enforcement, said Fishman, so Russia can’t just wait them out.There are many other sanction targets available to Trump if he wants to up the pressure ahead of negotiations, Fishman also noted. Chief among them would be sanctioning Russia’s energy giants Rosneft, Lukoil, and Gazprom, which have so far escaped direct sanctions.Weapons, aid, and more weaponsKeith Kellogg, Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has said that the administration’s goal is to end the war within 100 days.While sanctions are one incentive to negotiate, “their impact is likely not to be truly dangerous for Putin for several more months,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst told the Kyiv Independent.In the meantime, Putin has a stronger incentive to seize more territory from Ukraine and try to kick Ukrainian forces out of Kursk before negotiating, Herbst said. “It’s a great embarrassment to Putin that Ukraine’s been occupying Kursk for almost six months.”While Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine and Kursk Oblast over the past year, it has come at the cost of record troop losses. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said earlier this month that Russia’s military losses this year will surpass losses from the previous two years combined, and the U.K. has estimated that losses could surpass one million in the next six months.”I think the only way to get Putin to move faster in the short term would be for a new Trump-approved aid package to Ukraine full of weapons,” said Herbst.
“I think the only way to get Putin to move faster in the short term would be for a new Trump-approved aid package to Ukraine full of weapons.”
The package wouldn’t need to be a gift, noted Herbst, but could be a loan, or funded by frozen Russian assets or European partners. Alternatively, he said, other countries could purchase weapons for Ukraine, or the Trump administration could push for a transfer of the approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, an option that has been previously discussed. An employee handles 155mm caliber shells after the manufacturing process at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania, U.S., on April 16, 2024. (Charly Truballeau/AFP/Getty Images)An artilleryman from the Ukrainian military’s 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade prepares to fire a French-made Caesar self-propelled howitzer at Russian positions in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on Jan. 6, 2025, amid the Russian invasion. (Genya Savilov / AFP via Getty Images)”That might force Putin’s hand in the right direction. Although, even then, it’s unclear if Putin’s willing to compromise,” Herbst said.Beyond weapons, supporting Ukraine with non-military financial and humanitarian aid would indirectly help Ukraine on the battlefield, by giving the country more leeway to keep fighting.Diplomatic LeversRegardless of how Trump chooses to wield the military and economic leverage available to him, Trump will need to use diplomacy to bring Putin to the negotiating table and secure a peace deal. Any diplomatic maneuvering will need to not just include Ukraine and Russia but to take their allies into consideration.”First, there needs to be a clear demonstration of unity among Ukraine, Europe, and the United States as to what we’re trying to achieve,” said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of “Getting Russia Right.””The less daylight there is between the Ukrainians, the Europeans, and the Americans, the greater leverage that President Trump will have in dealing with Putin.”One way to strengthen Ukraine’s diplomatic position would be more movement in E.U. accession talks, Graham said. Ukraine would still need additional socioeconomic and political reforms, but it would signal long-term commitment from the West to further integrate Ukraine into a pan-European economic bloc.Demonstrating that the West is prepared to provide security guarantees would send a signal as well, said Graham.U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak to the media at a press conference on the second day of the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels, Belgium, on July 12, 2018. (Sean Gallup / Getty Images)Ukraine is painfully aware of the limits of security guarantees outside of NATO membership or the commitment of NATO troops, following the repeated failure of the Minsk Agreements to contain Russia after its 2014 invasion.Trump has already ruled out offering Ukraine NATO membership, but many countries have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine since 2014. Consolidating these piecemeal agreements and providing resources to back up the agreements would be one way to give them more teeth, according to Graham.Finally, said Graham, pressure on Iran and China could further isolate Russia and complicate its international position.Iran’s security situation has deteriorated due to the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime in December and recent tensions with Israel. Pressure on Iran, one of Russia’s most important allies for its war in Ukraine, could force the country to reallocate resources to addressing its own security concerns, rather than supplying Russia.”And,” said Graham, “there are ties and conversations that we can have with the Chinese that will perhaps encourage China to be less supportive of Russia than they have up to this point.”‘We have very little insight’A previous peace proposal that Trump’s team described before his inauguration ruled out Ukrainian membership in NATO for at least 20 years. “And that did not impress the Russians. They still trashed Trump’s peace initiative,” pointed out former Ambassador Herbst.In contrast, Herbst said, Trump’s team has seen President Volodymyr Zelensky signal willingness to compromise on territory, a softening of Ukraine’s long-standing position that any peace deal must return all captured land to Ukraine.”At this point, only the Ukrainians are showing some willingness to actually compromise,” he said.But apart from Trump’s comments threatening economic pressure, his administration has given little indication of its strategy for negotiations with Russia, all the experts who spoke with the Kyiv Independent noted.”We have very little insight into what the administration is thinking at this point,” explained Graham.Putin ready to talk to Trump, Kremlin ‘awaits signals’ from US″(Vladimir) Putin is ready, we are waiting for signals, everyone is ready,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Jan. 24.
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