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Russian troops continue to advance toward Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, while Ukrainian forces have made gains near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, the Estonian public broadcaster ERR reported on Dec. 13, citing the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center.Russian troops control the village of Shevchenko, four kilometers (two miles) west of Pokrovsk, Estonian intelligence reported, citing open-source intelligence.Ukrainian troops have been repelling Russian attacks along the Sukhi Yaly River to the south of Kurakhove for a week, the report read. In the meantime, Russia sought to encircle the area from the north and south.According to Estonian intelligence, Russia is incurring significant losses in this area. Over the past two weeks, about 3,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. These numbers are likely to continue to rise as Russian forces approach Pokrovsk.The unfavorable weather conditions are playing into the hands of the Ukrainian forces. At the same time, Russian aviation and heavy equipment are hampered, which is why Russia cannot use its full combat potential, according to the report.Russia has failed to achieve an operational breakthrough and is therefore increasing pressure on the Ukrainian army in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to Estonian intelligence. The Ukrainian defense is under much less pressure in other areas of the front. Ukrainian forces are enjoying success in the Kupiansk sector, where two Russian bridgeheads that emerged during the crossing of the Oskil River were destroyed, Estonian intelligence said.Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced on Nov. 29 that Ukrainian forces stationed near the embattled towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove would be supplied with additional reserves, ammunition, weapons, and military equipment.Ukraine also faces the prospect of decreased U.S. military aid under incoming President Donald Trump.Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged to speed up materiel deliveries before Trump takes office. The Pentagon on Dec. 7 announced a new weapons package for Ukraine worth nearly $1 billion.How will Russia’s war in Ukraine end? The good, the bad, and the ugly scenariosEditor’s note: This article is a compliment to an upcoming analytical report on scenarios for the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine by KI Insights, the Kyiv Independent’s research unit. After nearly three years of heavy battles and mass strikes, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is showing
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