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Friedrich Merz, who led the Christian Democratic Union to victory at the polls, referred to a strong Europe independent of the United States as his “absolute priority”. Many in Brussels now expect a more stable government in Berlin will mean a stronger German leadership
The night of Germany’s snap elections will be remembered as marking a seismic shift in the future course of the European Union.Friedrich Merz, who led the Christian Democratic Union to victory at the polls, referred to a strong Europe independent of the United States as his “absolute priority”. “I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump’s remarks last week…It is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe”, the soon-to-be Chancellor of Germany said.For a ‘die-hard’ Atlanticist like Merz, who has spent much of his professional life as a lawyer working with American firms, those words have significant meaning and could lead to some big decisions for the EU. Merz’s apparent policy shift is at odds with the CDU’s election manifesto, which emphasised the reliability of the US and the need to rely on the transatlantic alliance to ensure European security.But this can be interpreted as adapting to the shifting messages coming from the White House. “Recent actions, especially from US President Trump on Ukraine, have prompted Merz to completely revisit his approach on this,” explained Gesine Weber, a research analyst and fellow with the German Marshall Fund ’s Geostrategy Team.”So hearing a statement from a German to be or very likely chancellor that Europe should be more independent from the United States when it comes to its security is definitely a new development, but I think that is going to be very well received in many other European countries, especially and France. And it also aligns very well with the agenda of the new EU Commission on Security and Defence.” Flexibility on debt? An independent Europe should mean more spending on defence. And this could signal another major rethink, especially when it comes to flexibility on debt. But that could require some tricky decisions. It could be done by reforming the Schuldenbremse, or debt brake, a rule that limits government borrowing. This would be a significant move and one that would require a change to the German constitution, which would need a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag.“The reform of the debt break is indeed going to be one of the key challenges for the next government. Also, knowing that it was, among others, the CDU which blocked that reform under the current government. So it is going to be very interesting to see how if there is political will to do that, the CDU will manage to get others on board for that,” said Gesine Weber.On Monday, Merz said, “Before I speculate publicly about it, allow me to talk about it with the Social Democrats, the FDP and also the Greens in the next few days.” Both the rising stars of the German political scene, the right-wing AfD, and Die Linke have already said they would oppose such a change. “The question is whether the government would also be able to get forces from the opposition on board for that. I don’t see that happening with the AfD and they would probably have to make a very strong case to certain members of the Left Party that reforming the debt brake would not only benefit defence spending, but also social spending. So the reform of the debt brake is going to be a massive domestic political challenge,” Weber said. The difficult path to Eurobonds When it comes to common European defence, many choices are on the table. One of them is the common European debt, something that a lot of countries would want, but Germany has opposed. According to analyst Gesine Weber, the German position is very unlikely to change. “I don’t see Merz revisiting his position on common European debt and, for example, the possibility of Eurobonds in the short term,” she said.Instead, the new German government could accept the European Commission’s proposal to exempt defence from EU limits on government spending. But at the same time there could be a window opportunity. “If, however, the situation or the tensions with the United States become even more apparent, more significant in the next months, and if it is visible that there is absolutely no other solution, then a common debt for financing European defence, I could imagine that it is at least reconsidered, especially now, bearing in mind the strong statements that we’ve heard from Merz regarding the necessity for Europeans to be more independent from the United States,” Weber added.Buying EuropeanAs the strongest economy in the EU, Germany is a very influential member of the bloc and has significant weight when it comes to voting.Many in Brussels now expect a more stable government in Berlin will mean a stronger German leadership and closer cooperation with France, which could help to relaunch the Franco-German engine. “There is a good chance to find synergies, especially with French President Macron on questions of leveling up, for example, tech policy in the European Union, or also, as we heard yesterday on security and defence policy. And overall, I think that there is maybe also a chance to see more of an active role of Germany when it comes to leadership in Europe”, Weber said. Although there is consensus on the necessity that Ukraine is a priority, and that funding for Ukraine has to continue, the AfD could influence those decisions in the long term. “In the very short term, the AfD most likely won’t influence the support because there is a broad majority among parliamentarians. However, the AfD might be able to influence public discourse in Germany as the biggest opposition party and then we have to see whether there is also an impact, for example, on public support”, Gesine Weber claimed. An extraordinary European summit to discuss defence has been announced for 6 March but at this stage it’s still not clear who will represent Germany; negotiations to form a new coalition to govern Germany are still ongoing.
