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A group of European countries has been quietly working on a plan to send troops into Ukraine to help enforce any future peace settlement with Russia, with the UK and France at the forefront of the effort.
Ukraine’s Western partners have been quietly working on a plan to send troops to Ukraine, according to a report by the Associated Press (AP). Britain and France are at the forefront of the effort, though details remain scarce. The countries involved in the discussions are reluctant to tip their hand and give Russian President Vladimir Putin an edge should he agree to negotiate an end to the war he started three years ago.“I won’t get into the particular capabilities, but I do accept that if there is peace then there needs to be some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine and the UK will play its part in that,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in cautious remarks on Thursday.European leaders began exploring what kind of force might be needed roughly a year ago, but the sense of urgency has grown amid concern that US President Donald Trump might go over their heads and possibly even Ukraine’s, to clinch a deal with Putin. Addressing the Munich Security Conference this week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly said that if Ukraine is not accepted into NATO, it will have to build another NATO in Ukraine.First meetings to discuss the possible European contingentIn December, after Trump was elected but before he took office, a group of leaders and ministers huddled with Zelenskyy at NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s residence in Brussels. They came from Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Top European Union officials attended too.The talks built on an idea promoted by French President Emmanuel Macron in early 2024. At the time, his refusal to rule out putting troops on the ground in Ukraine prompted an outcry, notably from the leaders of Germany and Poland.Macron appeared isolated on the European stage, but his plan has since gained traction. Still, much about what the force might look like and who will take part will depend on the terms of any peace settlement, and more.Italy has constitutional limits on the use of its forces. The Netherlands would need a greenlight from its parliament, as would Germany, whose position could evolve after the 23 February elections usher in a new government. Poland is cautious, given lingering animosities with Ukraine that date from World War II.“We are in a very early stage,” Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s Defence Minister said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.While there are various ongoing discussions and rumours, it is “critical” for European allies to understand what the contact line in Ukraine will look like before coming up with a plan, Pevkur said.If Russia and Ukraine reduce their forces along the front line to a “couple of thousand” on both sides, then “it’s not a problem for Europe to also be there,” according to Pevkur, who pointed out that it would be much harder if there is still a “boiling conflict”.The makeup and role of the force will be dictated by the kind of peace deal that’s reached, same as the size of and location of the European contingent. Zelenskyy has insisted on at least 100,000 to 150,000 troops. Media reports have speculated about a 30,000-40,000 strong force. Diplomats and officials have not confirmed either figure.Ukraine’s president also insists that Europeans can gain a lots from his country’s experience. “Only our army in Europe has real, modern warfare experience.”“When we talk about contingents – I have a map that shows 110,000 foreign troops. It would be preferable for our partners who specialise in naval operations, like the UK and Nordic countries, to be deployed at sea,” he said at the Munich Security Conference.What Ukraine’s army doesn’t have is enough weapons and equipment, he admitted. “When we talk about a contingent, there was a question about whether we are open to a European one. I said we are ready for a contingent composed entirely of Ukrainians. The real issue is the equipment. If we have 150 to 160 F-16 fighter jets and over 25 Patriot systems, why would we need US or European troops? If the question is about nationality, it’s irrelevant.” he stressed.But if Russia attacks European NATO countries, Zelenskyy warned, the EU will not be able to cope on it own. He specifically pointed to Belarus as a possible launchpad to Russia’s attack as early as this year. It is due to this, Zelenskyy said, that it is time for an “Armed Forces of Europe”, as the Ukrainian leader appeared to push the idea of a new military and political alliance in which Ukraine’s army could play a big part. “Without the Ukrainian army, European armies will not be enough to stop Russia. This is the reality.”
