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Remember that team that nearly lost to a 5-11 Saints team starting its third-string quarterback?
They’re in action again on “Sunday Night Football” to conclude Wild Card Sunday and the Buccaneers are again favored, this time against the Washington Commanders.
Washington has gotten much better throughout the season, closing the season as the No. 10 team in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The Buccaneers graded out as an average team for most of the season.
Tampa Bay was between 14-16 in DVOA from Weeks 7-16 this season before closing the season as the No. 11 team, while the Commanders got as high as No. 7 and were only rated No. 14 once in that same span.
Washington has proven to be a better team throughout this season, and nothing should steer you in another direction this weekend.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers odds
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotalCommanders+3 (-110)+125Over 50.5 (-110)Buccaneers-3 (-110)-150Under 50.5 (-110)Odds provided by Fanatics Sportsbook
Commanders vs. Buccaneers prediction
As my favorite bet of the weekend, Washington should be in poll position to win this game thanks to its pass defense.
The Commanders boast the fifth-best pass defense in the NFL in yards per attempt (since Week 10) and are allowing just a 58 percent completion rate, the best figure in the NFL in that span.
There is some reason for concern about betting on a rookie quarterback in the hostile territory that is Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterbacks are just 5-17 straight-up in road playoff games.
I just don’t view the 24-year-old Daniels in the same light as most rookie quarterbacks.
He’s led the Commanders all season long as one of the best-scrambling quarterbacks in the NFL.
Tampa Bay is a below-average defense at allowing quarterbacks to accumulate rushing yards.
Betting on the NFL?
In a big game, I expect Washington to put the ball in its star’s hands and come out victorious.
Daniels ran 16 times for 88 yards in his NFL debut (a 37-20 loss) to the Buccaneers.
PICK: Commanders moneyline (+125, Fanatics) | Daniels Over 48.5 rushing yards (-130, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
