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The University of North Carolina Tar Heels made the first statement of March Madness.
Derided as the most controversial inclusion in the field of 68, UNC routed San Diego State, 95-68, on Tuesday to get into the Round of 64.
UNC now shifts its focus to No. 6 Ole Miss at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on Friday, and it’s the No. 11 seeded Tar Heels that are the 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook for this matchup.
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UNC vs. Ole Miss betting preview
There’s no denying that UNC was on a mission against San Diego State. Inspired by the hate, the Tar Heels ran riot over the Aztecs to show that they belonged in the Big Dance.
As impressive as that showing was from the Heels, they will take a step up in class against Ole Miss on Friday and this has been the bugaboo for UNC all season.
The reason everyone was surprised that the Heels were included is because of how this team fared in tough spots in 2024-25.
UNC went 1-12 in Quad I games during the season, and that makes you wonder if the betting market is getting carried away with what we saw against San Diego State.
It’s one thing to expect the Heels to provide a tough test against Ole Miss, but to make them the favorite? That seems a bit much.
UNC vs. Ole Miss betting pick
North Carolina was dominant against San Diego State, but the key to its success in that contest seems pretty tough to repeat.
The Heels went 14-for-23 (58.3%) from beyond the arc against the Aztecs, which made it nearly impossible for San Diego State to make a run and close the gap.
Ole Miss ranks 23rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, so the Rebels should provide a stiff test for the Heels.
In short, this seems like a classic case of the market overreacting to a recent result. The narrative that UNC is on a mission to prove it belongs in this tournament is providing value going the other way.
The Pick: Ole Miss +110 (BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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