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Just days away from the inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump, industries across Alberta are preparing for the looming threat of tariffs to become a reality.
The threat of sweeping tariffs on all Canadian goods exported to the U.S. has created uncertainty in Alberta’s agriculture industry, as beef production requires multiple trips back and forth across the 49th parallel.“It’s a whole lot of ‘what if,’” Alberta Cattle Feeders Association president Janice Tranberg told Global News.“It’s hard to say for sure but there is a lot of concern.”
According to Ryan Kasko, who runs Kasko Cattle Company outside of Lethbridge, it’s a difficult to plan ahead.A 25 per cent tariff, the worst case scenario he said, would result in $1,000 in lost value per head of cattle.“Frankly, most farms would go bankrupt real quick,” Kasko told Global News.Beef led Alberta’s agricultural exports to the U.S. in 2023 at $3.1 billion, followed by crude canola oil at $1.2 billion, live cattle (excluding purebred) at $980.2 million, processed potatoes at $716.5 million, and oilseed cake and meal $666.1 million, according to figures from the Government of Alberta. Given the amount Alberta exports to the U.S., Kasko said the impacts of trade restrictions would also be felt by Americans in the grocery store.“I think in an inflationary environment where food costs have been going up, it’s contrary to what you’d think to be normal behaviour — to put tariffs on that will increase food prices even higher,” he said.“I’m pretty optimistic that common sense will prevail.”
In a statement to Global News, Alberta Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation RJ Sigurdson said the province is “very concerned about the potential for tariffs.”
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Sigurdson said Alberta exported $8.9 billion of primary agriculture and value-added products to the U.S. last year.“There’s still plenty of unknowns about the possible impact of tariffs, but we will work with the incoming administration and industry to ensure our food producers and forestry sector’s voices are heard,” Sigurdson’s statement said. Impacts are also expected at businesses like Rangeland RV, which regularly ships steel, aluminum and other motorhome parts back and forth from the United States.
“It can affect everything from timing of parts, prices of parts, prices of RVs, labour rates and everything in between,” Rangeland RV’s vice-president of sales, Cody Nielsen, told Global News.But word the federal government is planning a first-round of counter-tariffs on $37 billion worth of goods deemed less harmful to the economy, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce is urging a different approach.“The Calgary Chamber’s members have made it very clear to us that no sector should be used as a bargaining chip,” the Chamber’s Ruhee Ismail-Teja told Global News.According to the chamber, retaliatory measures would “mimic and amplify” the impacts of U.S. tariffs, reducing the value of Canadian energy products. Figures from the Chamber of Commerce show the energy industry represents 25 per cent of Canada’s total exports and accounts for $150 billion in annual trade with the U.S.“The ‘Team Canada’ approach is not lost at this point,” Ismail-Teja said.“It’s a challenging situation for political leaders to be in, where they both need to champion the needs of their province or jurisdiction but also stand with their colleagues to have as united a front as possible.”The Government of Alberta is also speaking out against any retaliatory measures that would impact the energy sector.“Tariffs would potentially impact hundreds of thousands of jobs in Alberta,” said a spokesperson for the Finance Ministry in a statement to Global News. “But if the federal government imposes an import tax or ban on energy products, the impact would be crippling to the livelihoods of every Albertan.”
