In the interview with retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander for U.S. Central Command, he discusses the recent Iranian attack on Israel and the implications it has for regional stability. Gen. McKenzie believes that Iran’s attack was a maximum effort, using a combination of ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. While the attack was largely intercepted by Israeli defense systems, it was indiscriminate and designed to cause casualties. He emphasizes that the Iranians may now try to portray themselves as moderate, but the nature and scope of the attack were far from moderate. Gen. McKenzie believes that Israel emerged stronger from the attack, while Iran has weakened as a result.
Regarding potential Israeli reprisals, Gen. McKenzie advises restraint. He acknowledges that there will be pressure on Israeli leaders to take action, but he suggests that precision and brevity should be prioritized. Gen. McKenzie points out that Israel now has the upper hand in determining the course of action, given the disparity in zeal and competence between Israel and Iran. He believes that showing restraint can be a strategic option for Israel in this situation, allowing them to leverage their position of strength without escalating the conflict further.
Gen. McKenzie also highlights the importance of Lebanese Hezbollah in the region and notes that they have not entered the conflict in a substantial way. He warns that Hezbollah still poses a threat to Israel, but their decision not to escalate during the recent attack is significant. Reflecting on previous encounters with Iran, such as the killing of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, Gen. McKenzie notes that Iran’s responses have been relatively restrained. He underscores the vulnerability of U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria to potential Iranian or proxy attacks, but also emphasizes that Iran has shown caution in targeting U.S. personnel in the region.
In terms of potential Israeli responses, Gen. McKenzie suggests that Israel has a wide range of targets to choose from both inside and outside Iran. He reiterates the importance of being narrow and precise in any retaliatory action and advises that the response should have a clear beginning and end. Despite having the capability to inflict significant damage, Gen. McKenzie encourages Israel to exercise strategic restraint and consider the long-term implications of their actions. He believes that Israel has an opportunity to demonstrate diplomatic leadership and seize the initiative following the recent conflict. Overall, Gen. McKenzie’s analysis provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics at play in the Middle East and the strategic considerations for all parties involved.
