Vladimir Putin’s response to a question about the U.S. election at an economic forum in Vladivostok raised eyebrows as he teased a preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, citing Biden’s removal from the race. Despite his noncommittal answer, the election carries significant stakes for Russia, with analysts noting that neither candidate offers much promise for improving relations with Russia. Harris has taken a hard line against Russia, while Trump has shown admiration for Putin, but both have their downsides when it comes to Russian interests.
Key issues for Russia in the U.S. election include aid for Ukraine, with Harris likely to continue the Biden administration’s support while Trump has hinted at lifting sanctions against Russia as a bargaining tool for ending the conflict. Trump’s proposals, such as demilitarizing territory occupied by Russia, could significantly impact the situation in Ukraine. Additionally, the U.S. has provided substantial military assistance to Ukraine since 2022, but growing congressional opposition to continued aid could shape the future approach under a Harris administration.
Harris has a history of confronting Russia on human rights, particularly in the case of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death. Trump, on the other hand, has been hesitant to criticize Putin on such matters and has focused on conservative policies that mirror Russia’s rollback of LGBTQ+ rights. The issue of human rights is likely to remain a point of contention between the U.S. and Russia, depending on the outcome of the election.
NATO relations may also be affected by the election, with Trump questioning the alliance’s commitment to defending member countries that don’t meet spending targets. Harris has assured that the U.S. commitment to NATO is firm, but has not clarified her stance on Ukraine’s potential membership. Arms control deals with Russia, including the renewal of the New START treaty, could also be impacted by the election. Biden’s support for the treaty contrasts with Trump’s dismantling of previous arms control agreements, signaling a potential shift in policy depending on the election outcome.
Overall, the U.S. election presents a complex situation for Russia, with both candidates having their own strengths and weaknesses in terms of relations with the country. The outcome could shape the future of U.S.-Russia relations, particularly in key areas such as Ukraine, human rights, NATO, and arms control. Russia is closely watching the election and preparing for potential implications on its geopolitical interests based on the policies of the incoming administration.
