In May 2025, Vladimir Putin is set to begin his fifth term as Russia’s president amid growing tensions with NATO countries over support for Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry recently announced military exercises simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which experts believe were intended to sow doubt and division among Western allies. Comments by British and French leaders suggesting military support for Ukraine have made Russia uneasy and prompted the regime to respond with threats. Analysts argue that Russia is trying to create ambiguity in its nuclear strategy, potentially escalating tensions with the West.
Putin has frequently reminded Western countries of Russia’s nuclear capabilities since the invasion of Ukraine began, but this is the first public announcement of military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons. The decision to deploy these weapons in Belarus is seen as an attempt by Russia to counter perceived threats from the West and increase its ability to strike potential targets more easily. However, analysts believe that this move will not only distract public opinion but also have the opposite effect by strengthening Western support for Ukraine.
The exact number of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus is unknown, but the decision is expected to complicate military planning for the US, Europe, and Ukraine. Experts argue that Russia’s actions are aimed at creating uncertainty and raising the stakes in the conflict, potentially leading to a dangerous escalation. Despite the risks involved in using nuclear weapons, Putin may believe that the West will not risk escalation for Ukraine at the moment. Analysts suggest that the best way to counter Putin’s aggression is to make him feel weak again by providing Ukraine with necessary resources and lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons.
With Moscow celebrating Victory Day, marking the defeat of the Nazis in World War II, experts believe Putin may feel emboldened and powerful. However, they caution that issuing nuclear threats could lead to a dangerous game of escalation with the West. It is essential for Western countries to stand united against Russian aggression by supporting Ukraine and sending a clear message that the use of nuclear weapons will not be tolerated. By strengthening Western support for Ukraine and showing a willingness to engage in conflict if necessary, the West can deter Putin from further military aggression and maintain peace and stability in the region.
