The upcoming elections on May 12th in Catalonia are shaping up to be another dual showdown between Catalan factions, as caricatured by Josep Pla: “Fugitives, conformists, rebels, and cowards.” Carles Puigdemont has framed the election as an emotional plebiscite, declaring that he will step down from politics if he does not become President of the Generalitat, presenting voters with a clear choice between returning to the uncertainty of the 2017 independence process or turning the page and rewriting the future. Puigdemont’s ultimatum, described by writer Javier Cercas as the “creator of chaos,” challenges Junts voters, disheartened and angry independents, as well as the Catalan solution presented by Pedro Sánchez and his candidate Salvador Illa.
Puigdemont has made it clear that he will not stay in the Catalan Parliament as opposition leader if he loses, declaring that he can only be politically active if he holds the presidency. Despite his previous promises to return to face the consequences of his actions during the 2017 independence process, Puigdemont has yet to do so. Novelist and essayist Javier Cercas views Puigdemont as a creator of chaos rather than a politician who has ever led or managed anything, questioning his ability to be effective as an opposition figure in the Catalan Parliament. The prevailing sentiment is that these elections are a plebiscite, with differing interpretations depending on the political perspective.
The election campaign in Catalonia has been characterized by the emotional strategy of Puigdemont, aimed at mobilizing disillusioned independentist voters. Historically, Catalan voters have shown a similar level of support for nationalist and constitutionalist parties in elections, maintaining a balance between the two. Puigdemont’s last-ditch effort to rally support with his ultimatum is seen as a desperate attempt to bring disheartened voters back into the fold. The campaign rhetoric has become increasingly polarized, with Puigdemont targeting his attacks on Illa and aligning himself against the far-right candidate Silvia Orriols.
The electorate in Catalonia faces a choice between maintaining the conflict over independence or moving towards a resolution. Puigdemont’s strategy of presenting a stark choice of his withdrawal from politics in case of defeat aims to appeal to those who believe that only he can represent Catalonia effectively in Madrid. The complexity of the situation has been compared to a missed opportunity, with the potential for significant implications for both Catalonia and Spain’s governance after the election. The prevailing sentiment, as captured in a quote from Paul Auster, is one of missed opportunities and the failure to piece together the puzzle of Catalan and Spanish politics.
