Last month, the Armenian government announced plans to surrender territory in the northern Armenian region of Tavush as part of a border delimitation process with Azerbaijan, leading to demonstrations in Armenia against the decision. Over 100,000 people gathered in Yerevan, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who is seen as responsible for failing to prevent Azerbaijan’s assault on Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and subsequent ethnic cleansing in the region. The mass movement in Armenia highlights growing discontent with an inequitable peace process that forces Armenia to make concessions without guarantees for its security against Azerbaijan’s attacks and occupation of Armenian territory.
Armenia’s dissatisfaction with the peace talks has put the U.S. and European Union in a difficult position. Dependent on Russia for security, Armenia seeks new partners following Russia’s failure to meet allied obligations during Azerbaijan’s aggression. The West sees an opportunity to secure a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, supplanting Russia’s influence in the region and containing Iran, while ensuring the flow of oil and gas from Azerbaijan to Europe. However, Azerbaijan’s unwillingness to engage in serious peace talks has hindered progress, leading the U.S. to continue engaging with Azerbaijan despite its refusal to impose costs for war crimes committed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The U.S. has maintained a policy of appeasing Azerbaijan, providing military assistance and defense contracts, despite the regime’s human rights violations and aggressive actions. This approach has not yielded clear results and has empowered a less free authoritarian regime, benefiting Russia and undermining U.S. values. In the wake of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan has been rewarded with economic investment, military partnerships, and the privilege of hosting COP29, raising concerns about greenwashing and international accountability for its actions. A recent diplomatic blunder, when the U.S. ambassador visited a destroyed Armenian church in Shushi, highlighted Washington’s failure to hold Azerbaijan accountable and eroded trust in U.S. diplomacy.
The U.S. must recognize the contradictions in its approach to the South Caucasus region, where it claims to support Armenia’s sovereignty while enabling Azerbaijan through impunity. Demonstrations in Armenia against territorial concessions indicate a need for accountability in peace negotiations to ensure a just and durable peace. By failing to address these contradictions in its foreign policy, the U.S. risks legitimizing authoritarian expansionism and undermining its support for democracy and human rights in the region. As Armenia seeks diversification of partnerships and engagement with the West, the U.S. must reevaluate its strategies to promote accountability and peace in the region.
As protests in Armenia gain momentum against unilateral territorial concessions, the U.S. must prioritize accountability in its approach to the South Caucasus. Resolving contradictions in foreign policy and supporting Armenia’s sovereignty are essential for achieving a just and lasting peace in the region. By addressing these challenges, the U.S. can work towards diversifying Armenia’s partnerships and promoting democratic values in the face of authoritarian expansionism in the region.
