European Council President Charles Michel emphasized the necessity of the European Union expanding to prevent the creation of a new “Iron Curtain” along its eastern border. He highlighted the importance of stability, prosperity, and economic development in the EU’s neighboring countries, emphasizing the shared interests of candidate countries and the EU in making progress and accelerating the enlargement process. Michel’s remarks coincided with the 20th anniversary of the EU’s largest ever enlargement in 2004, which brought ten countries, including former Soviet republics, into the bloc, thereby preventing a split along an Iron Curtain-like divide. Currently, nine countries from eastern Europe and the Western Balkans are waiting to join the EU but are facing challenges in meeting the demands of the accession process.
The prospect of new member states joining the EU has gained momentum due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has reignited discussions around enlargement. However, efforts to streamline the accession process face obstacles from skeptical member states. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has threatened to impede Ukraine’s accession talks through the use of veto power. Despite the potential roadblocks posed by skeptical member states, Michel remains optimistic about reaffirming the EU’s political will to enlarge in the upcoming institutional cycle. He is confident that most EU leaders recognize the importance of the enlargement process for the future of the bloc, downplaying concerns about a Hungarian presidency affecting the accession of candidate countries.
The integration of Ukraine, a country with a significantly lower GDP per capita than EU member states, poses economic challenges for the EU. Concerns have been raised about the potential strain on the EU’s budgetary structure and the transition of multiple countries from net beneficiaries to net contributors in the event of Ukraine’s accession. A report by the think tank Bruegel estimated the cost of Ukraine’s EU accession at €110 to €136 billion over seven years. To manage the economic impact of Ukraine’s potential membership, Michel discussed the need for a specific transition model, unique to the country’s situation, to address issues such as post-war reconstruction costs.
Michel also suggested that countries more aligned with the EU’s economic framework could be admitted as members before the end of the decade. He stressed the importance of the EU doing its due diligence, including implementing necessary reforms, to be prepared for enlargement by 2030. Despite concerns about the economic implications of Ukraine’s integration, Michel urged the bloc not to fear it, suggesting that Ukraine would present attractive investment opportunities as part of the single market. By adapting to the changing landscape and addressing economic challenges proactively, the EU can pave the way for future enlargements and strengthen its position on the global stage.
In navigating the complexities of EU enlargement, Michel highlighted the concept of “constructive abstention” as a mechanism to address differing opinions among member states without blocking progress. This approach allows countries to express their concerns openly while preventing individual states from obstructing collective decisions. Michel’s confidence in the shared commitment among EU leaders to the enlargement process reflects a broader consensus on the importance of promoting stability, prosperity, and cooperation in the region. By working collaboratively and addressing challenges collectively, the EU can navigate the complexities of enlargement and strengthen its position as a unified player on the global stage.
