The 150th Kentucky Derby is fast approaching, and picking a winner from the field of 20 horses presents a challenge for both veteran horseplayers and casual fans. Since the implementation of the Derby qualification system in 2013, the dynamics of the race have shifted, resulting in fields heavier on horses with success under Derby-like conditions. While long shot upsets are thrilling, favorites have a strong track record in the Derby, winning 6 out of 11 races since 2013. Fierceness, this year’s favorite, has a peculiar track record, winning races dominantly but also delivering clunker performances.
Pace is a key variable in the Derby, as a fast early pace can benefit closers while proving unsustainable for horses leading the pack. The contrast in running styles between favorites Sierra Leone and Fierceness adds intrigue to the race. The recent history of the Derby shows how crucial pace can be, with deep closers often capitalizing on hot paces. Factors such as post position and competition for early positions will influence each horse’s strategy in the race.
Speed ratings provide a useful tool for evaluating the field, with Fierceness boasting a significant advantage with a high Beyer rating of 110. However, past Derby winners have not always been the horses with the highest ratings, highlighting the unpredictability of the race. Horses with strong finishing capabilities in their prep races could hold an advantage in the Derby, with most recent winners meeting specific benchmarks in their final fractions.
Two Japanese-bred horses, Forever Young and T O Password, are adding an international flair to this year’s race. Descendants of the influential sire Sunday Silence, these horses have the opportunity to make an impact on the Derby, despite historical challenges faced by previous Japanese entrants. Forever Young, in particular, has shown promise with impressive performances leading up to the Derby.
In choosing a pick for the Kentucky Derby, the author shies away from the favorites and focuses on finding a long shot with favorable characteristics. A horse with the right running style, a strong Beyer speed figure, and solid finishing capability in their prep races could be a contender for victory. While favorites like Fierceness and Sierra Leone present compelling cases, the unpredictability and chaos of the Derby make selecting a long shot an appealing strategy for potential success. Ultimately, the Derby’s rich history and unique challenges provide an exciting backdrop for horse racing enthusiasts looking to make their predictions for the prestigious race.
