A team of geophysicists has predicted that an undersea volcano, known as Axial Seamount, will likely erupt sometime in 2025. This prediction is based on monitoring data collected over the past decade, using a suite of devices that provide real-time information about the volcano’s activity. Axial Seamount is considered the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet, making it an ideal location for studying volcanic behavior.
Monitoring of Axial Seamount has revealed signs of an imminent eruption, including swelling of the volcano’s surface and increased seismic activity, indicating the movement of magma underground. With the data obtained from the monitoring devices, researchers have been able to pinpoint the likely timing of the next eruption, similar to their successful forecasting of the 2015 eruption based on previous swelling events.
Researchers have developed new tools and technologies to improve their ability to forecast volcanic eruptions, including using artificial intelligence to analyze earthquake data recorded before the 2015 eruption. These advancements in forecasting technology offer the potential for early warning signals that could help predict volcanic events with greater accuracy, allowing for timely preparations and response measures.
If successful, these forecasting methods could provide valuable insights into volcanic behavior and allow researchers to document the eruption process in real-time. Understanding the effects of volcanic eruptions on hydrothermal systems and biological communities near the volcano could provide valuable information for future research and hazard mitigation efforts.
While underwater volcanoes like Axial Seamount pose less immediate risks to human communities compared to land-based volcanoes, they can still have significant impacts, as seen during the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption. Forecasting volcanic events is a complex and challenging task, requiring extensive monitoring data and knowledge of each volcano’s specific behavior patterns.
The success of forecasting efforts depends on the ability to recognize patterns and thresholds that indicate an imminent eruption. However, there is always the risk that a volcano might behave unpredictably and deviate from expected patterns. As scientists continue to study volcanoes like Axial Seamount, they hope to develop forecasts based on the underlying physics and chemistry of magma systems.
While the eruption of Axial Seamount in 2025 may not revolutionize eruption forecasting, it will provide valuable insights into volcanic behavior and help researchers improve their understanding of other volcanoes. By studying regular volcanic behavior and testing new ideas on ideal cases like Axial Seamount, scientists can gain a deeper understanding of how volcanoes work and enhance their forecasting capabilities for the future.
