The return of Donald Trump to the White House has raised hopes and concerns within the space industry. Trump built a strong pro-space record during his first term, establishing the Space Force, increasing NASA funding, and launching the Artemis program. Industry players believe Trump’s interest in competing with China will boost spending on military and civil space programs, potentially shifting priorities towards Mars, a goal favored by Elon Musk. While Musk’s SpaceX is already involved in the Artemis program, there is uncertainty over whether Congress will support Musk’s ambitions, especially if Trump pushes for tax and spending cuts.
One area where SpaceX stands to benefit is if Trump convinces Congress to cut funding for NASA’s Space Launch System, a costly government-owned rocket that Musk believes Starship could replace more cost-effectively. SpaceX is already developing a version of Starship for the Artemis program, but another government contract to replace SLS with Starship would be lucrative. However, it is unlikely to happen due to the extensive network of jobs supported by SLS. Another commercial vehicle like Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket could also compete for this role.
Furthermore, SpaceX could benefit from a transition to a GOP majority on the Federal Communications Commission, allowing the company to expand its Starlink communications satellite constellation. Trump may also seek to expand the Space Force, which currently has the smallest budget of all military services. However, uncertainty remains over how Trump’s proposed tax and spending cuts will impact defense spending and Space Force funding, especially if constraints are imposed by the Freedom Caucus in Congress.
Despite concerns over budget cuts, the Trump administration is likely to focus more on space privatization to counter China, which could benefit U.S. space companies. Commercial satellite Earth observation providers have shown promise, but profitability has been challenging due to government agencies’ reliance on government-owned systems. Musk’s decision to stop the Ukrainian military from using Starlink illustrates concerns about relying on commercial services during crises. This uncertainty, along with Musk’s unpredictability, may prompt countries to accelerate their efforts to develop independent space capabilities, reducing their dependence on U.S. space access.
