In the upcoming 2024 elections, a handful of House seats currently held by Democrats could potentially flip to Republicans, giving the GOP a chance to build on their slim majority. With all 435 seats in the House up for grabs, the focus for Republicans will be on picking up seats in districts that favor right-wing candidates, particularly those that were won or narrowly lost by Republicans in recent elections. Currently, Republicans hold a 218-to-213 majority in the House, which is expected to decrease further with the resignation of Wisconsin GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher in April.
The Cook Political Report has identified 11 Democrat-held seats as “Toss Up” races in 2024, including several districts that were won or nearly won by former President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Some of the House seats currently held by Democrats that could flip in 2024 include Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District, and Michigan’s 7th Congressional District. These races are expected to be closely contested between the Democratic incumbents and their Republican challengers.
In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Jared Golden faces a challenge from two Republicans in the primary election. In Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur is up against Republican challenger Derek Merrin. Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District sees Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright facing off against Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. Washington’s 3rd Congressional District features Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez running for re-election against several Republican candidates. Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District sees Democrat Mary Peltola competing against Republican Nick Begich and Nancy Dahlstrom. Michigan’s 7th Congressional District is an open seat being contested by Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr.
Although Republicans are targeting several Democrat-held House seats for potential flips in 2024, they also face challenges in holding onto their own seats. The Cook Political Report has identified 11 GOP-held seats as “Toss Up” races, suggesting that the GOP majority in the House could be at risk. Among the competitive races, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District is being closely watched, with former U.S. Army Special Forces Green Beret Derrick Anderson leading the Republican contenders. Incumbent Democrat Abigail Spanberger has announced her bid for governor of Virginia in 2025, potentially opening up the seat for a Republican challenger.
Overall, the 2024 House elections will be pivotal for both parties as they battle for control of the chamber. With potential opportunities for Republicans to pick up seats currently held by Democrats, the GOP is looking to strengthen its majority in the House. However, the risk of losing their own seats in competitive races could pose a challenge for Republicans. As the election cycle progresses, the outcomes of these closely contested races will determine the balance of power in the House and shape the political landscape for years to come.
