The ongoing dispute over uninhabited reefs in the South China Sea has escalated tensions between China and the Philippines, which could potentially involve the United States due to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. The South China Sea is strategically vital for food, oil, and power, with one-third of global shipping passing through its waters. Various countries, including Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei, also claim parts of the South China Sea. The recent incident involved Chinese air force jets dropping flares in the path of a Philippine military transport plane over the Scarborough Shoal, leading to accusations of dangerous and provocative actions.
The main flashpoints between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are the Scarborough Shoal and the Second Thomas Shoal, both of which are inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. China has been occupying the Scarborough Shoal for over a decade, while tensions have flared at the Second Thomas Shoal over Manila’s attempts to resupply a rusty warship intentionally grounded there in 1999. The Philippines has accused China of using forceful tactics to block resupply missions, leading to clashes and injuries among Filipino sailors. China has enforced new rules allowing the use of lethal force against foreign ships in claimed waters, escalating tensions in the region.
Despite a provisional agreement between China and the Philippines to avoid altercations around the Second Thomas Shoal, underlying disputes remain unresolved, keeping the situation fragile. The Philippines has sought international support for its maritime claims, strengthening security ties with the U.S., Japan, Australia, and others. The U.S. pledged $500 million in military aid to the Philippines during a recent visit by top officials, signaling support for the Philippines. However, China accused the U.S. of stirring up trouble in the region, as both countries aim to avoid armed conflict in the South China Sea.
Philippine Defense Secretary has noted the lack of international support for China’s claims in the South China Sea, citing a ruling by an international tribunal in The Hague in 2016 that deemed Beijing’s claims invalid. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has moved the Philippines closer to the U.S., has downplayed the idea of direct U.S. involvement in clashes with China. However, a Filipino fatality could prompt invoking the U.S.-Philippine mutual defense pact, which both the U.S. and China would prefer to avoid. The U.S. is already dealing with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and war with China in the region would be particularly undesirable.
Overall, tensions between China and the Philippines over maritime disputes in the South China Sea have the potential to draw in the United States due to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. The region is strategically important for various resources and shipping routes, leading to various countries claiming parts of the South China Sea. Despite efforts to avoid conflict and seek international support, underlying disputes persist, keeping the situation fragile. The involvement of the U.S. in potential conflicts in the region remains a concern, as all parties aim to prevent armed conflict and maintain stability in the South China Sea.
