Recent polling in California shows that Donald Trump faces an uphill battle if he hopes to win the state in the upcoming presidential election. Despite claims from Trump’s lawyer Alina Habba that Californians are fed up with Governor Gavin Newsom’s policies and are ready to “flip California,” two surveys conducted by the University of California, Berkeley and Capitol Weekly show Vice President Kamala Harris with a significant lead over Trump. In one survey, Harris was ahead by 25 points, while in the other, she led by 24 points, with independent and Green Party candidates also receiving some support.
Trump has been critical of Harris, alleging that her time as California attorney general was detrimental to San Francisco and suggesting that she would have a similarly negative impact on the country if elected president. However, the polling data indicates that Harris is a formidable opponent in California, particularly after she became the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2024 election in July. Since then, Trump has fallen behind in the polls, with more than a dozen surveys showing Harris with a lead in the popular vote.
Earlier polls also showed Trump trailing in California, even before Harris became the expected Democratic nominee. A survey conducted by Capitol Weekly in July, as well as a Public Policy Institute of California poll in June, both showed Trump significantly behind Harris. The recent Siena College poll for The New York Times also highlighted a significant gender gap in support for the two candidates, with Harris leading among women by 21 points while Trump led among men by 14 points. If elected, Harris would make history as the first female president of the United States.
Overall, the polling data suggests that California is an uphill battle for Trump, despite claims made by his supporters that discontent with Newsom’s policies could flip the state in his favor. With Harris maintaining a significant lead in the polls and with growing support among women voters, Trump faces a significant challenge in winning the Golden State. The gap between Harris and Trump in recent surveys, as well as historical polling data, indicates that California is likely to remain a stronghold for the Democratic Party in the upcoming election.
