Former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in all seven critical swing states and has an even larger margin in most states when also up against independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a new poll shows. Trump is leading in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, among other states, with varying margins of victory. The polls show an 8% to 11% undecided rate in all states, indicating that either candidate has the potential to sway voters before the election.
When third-party candidates are included in the polls, RFK Jr. takes away more votes from Biden in several states, including Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This leads to a wider margin of victory for Trump against Biden. Kennedy is polling at 6% in multiple states, significantly impacting the support for Biden, particularly when additional third-party candidates, such as Cornel West, are included in the polls.
Kennedy has been able to secure enough signatures to get on the ballot in Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada, but still needs to do so in all 50 states. The poll was conducted with a 3% credibility interval and surveyed 1,000 registered voters in each state. According to Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, the state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since tracking began in November. While Biden has made some gains in certain states, Trump has maintained a slight edge.
Despite Trump’s lead in the presidential race, the survey shows that this isn’t transferring to Senate races. In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego is leading over Republican Kari Lake to replace outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Lake has increased her margin since February, while Gallego has decreased slightly. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is favored over Republican Dave McCormick. Democrats are also leading in Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina, with incumbents or Democratic candidates in the lead in each state.
Overall, the poll indicates that Trump has a lead over Biden in critical swing states and the addition of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. further widens the gap between the two candidates. While Kennedy’s presence in the race has the potential to impact the outcome, he still needs to secure a spot on the ballot in all 50 states. In Senate races, Democrats are leading in key states, suggesting that the Republican advantage in the presidential race may not necessarily translate to success in other races. The poll highlights the uncertainty and potential for shifts in voter support leading up to the election.
