Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are engaged in tight races across the sunbelt region, based on recent polling data. According to the latest survey from New York Times/Siena, Harris is leading Trump by five points in Arizona and two points in North Carolina. This is a shift from previous polling where these states were thought to be runaway victories for Trump when President Biden was leading the ticket. The results are particularly concerning for Republicans as Trump had won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020.
The survey polled registered voters in four states – Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada – in August. In Georgia, a state that Trump lost in 2020, he was leading Harris by four points. Similarly, in Nevada, a state he also lost in the previous two elections, Trump had a slight lead over Harris. The poll also revealed that a higher percentage of voters considered Harris to be “too liberal or progressive” compared to those who thought Trump was “too conservative.”
On the issues, more voters in the surveyed states believed Trump would do a better job on the economy and immigration, where he held significant advantages over Harris. However, Harris had a strong lead on the issue of abortion. The pollster noted that while the races were close and Harris was not definitively winning, there was enthusiasm and excitement surrounding her candidacy. This presented a new electoral map and path for Harris in the upcoming election.
The survey also touched on the favorability ratings of other political figures. Senator JD Vance was viewed favorably by 36% of voters, while Minnesota Governor Tim Walz had a higher favorability rating of 38%. It was noted that more than half of voters were paying close attention to the race, indicating that opinions were solidifying. Previous polling had shown Trump trailing in critical battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, setting the stage for intense competition between the two candidates in the 2024 election.
Overall, the polling data indicated that the race between Trump and Harris in key sunbelt states was very close. Harris appeared to have the edge in Arizona and North Carolina, while Trump was leading in Georgia and Nevada. Issues such as the economy, immigration, and abortion were important factors for voters in deciding between the two candidates. The enthusiasm surrounding Harris’s candidacy and the attention from voters suggested a competitive and intense election ahead in 2024. It will be crucial for both candidates to continue campaigning and addressing key issues to secure the support of voters in these critical states.
