A recent poll conducted by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult showed that former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in four of the seven battleground states that will likely decide the 2024 election. Trump has a lead of seven percentage points in Arizona, six points in Georgia, eight points in Nevada, and 10 points in North Carolina. Additionally, Trump is narrowly ahead of Biden in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with the former president leading by four and one percentage points respectively. In Michigan, Biden has a two-point edge over Trump. Overall, Trump leads Biden by a margin of 49-43% across the seven states surveyed.
Swing-state voters identified the economy as the top issue in the upcoming election, with 82% saying it will be “very important” in determining who they vote for. Immigration ranked second, with 15% of respondents saying it was their top issue, while abortion and democracy tied for third place at 9% each. A majority of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the direction of the US economy, with 70% believing it is heading in the wrong direction, and 57% sharing the same sentiment about their own state’s economy.
Despite President Biden’s campaign spending $30 million in the month following his State of the Union address on ad buys and campaign stops in critical swing states, his poll numbers are lagging. The president’s campaign has highlighted his record on abortion and attempted to draw distinctions between him and Trump on the economy and the direction of the country. However, a significant portion of voters have negative views of both major party candidates, with 44% saying they have a “very unfavorable” view of both Trump and Biden. Over half of respondents think America was better off under Trump and that their personal financial situation was better under his administration.
In addition to the economy and immigration, Social Security was identified as an important issue for registered voters surveyed in the poll. The majority of voters expressed support for a billionaires’ tax to bolster the entitlement’s funds. Biden was seen as more trustworthy in handling Social Security and Medicare, with 45% finding him more reliable compared to 39% for Trump. The Trump campaign emphasized that voting for Trump would lead to cheaper gas prices and more money in voters’ pockets, while Biden’s economic policies were portrayed as robbing people of thousands of dollars each month.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll had a sample size of 4,969 registered voters in seven swing states, namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from April 8-15 and had a margin of error of 1% across all the swing states, with specific margins for individual states ranging from three to five percentage points. The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the poll’s findings.
