President Biden has taken a narrow lead over former President Trump in the key state of Wisconsin, with the two tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to a recent 2024 election poll. The survey, conducted by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult in March, shows Trump still leading Biden 47% to 43% across seven battleground states, but the Democrat is making gains against his presumptive Republican opponent for the first time in five months. In Wisconsin, Biden is backed by 46% of registered voters compared to Trump’s 45%.
In Pennsylvania and Michigan, registered voters are evenly split between Biden and Trump, with each candidate receiving 45% support in both states. This marks a change from February when Biden was trailing Trump by several percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan according to the same survey. Trump continues to hold significant leads over Biden head-to-head in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, as well as a narrow edge in Nevada.
In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden in Michigan, the two candidates are tied at 40% each among registered voters. When third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included in the ballot test, Trump leads Biden in six of the seven battleground states. A nationwide Morning Consult poll also gave Biden a one-point lead over Trump among registered voters.
The RealClearPolitics polling aggregator shows Trump has been ahead of Biden in almost all election surveys since September 2023. The recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll took place over the week following Biden’s State of the Union address, which supporters of the president used to deflect concerns about his age. Both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have underwater favorability ratings, with more than half of registered voters in the battleground states having an unfavorable view of Trump.
When asked whether they were voting for their preferred candidate or against their opponent, fewer than three in 10 Trump supporters said they were casting a ballot against Biden. Nearly half of Biden voters said they were voting to block Trump’s path to the White House for a second nonconsecutive term. The poll also found that voters who have a favorable opinion of former GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley said they would vote for Trump over Biden on Election Day 2024.
Around six in 10 voters surveyed said that vice presidential picks will carry more weight in their choice of candidate, given the respective ages of Trump and Biden. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed registered voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, with different polling periods and margins of error for each state.
