The number of Ukrainians opposed to territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for peace has decreased to 55% in May, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS). This is a significant drop from previous polls conducted in February and December 2023, where 65% and 74% were opposed, respectively. The poll also found that the number of respondents willing to accept ceding territory in order to achieve peace and preserve independence has risen to 32%. Geographically, the highest level of opposition to territorial concessions came from the west of the country, while the lowest came from the south. Despite these shifting attitudes, Ukrainians prioritize safety and strong security guarantees when considering peace agreements.
The idea of offering territorial concessions in exchange for peace remains controversial in Ukraine, with fears that it could lead to a temporary ceasefire that would allow Russia to reconstitute its forces and potentially reignite the war in the future. External pressure is also mounting on Ukraine to accept territorial concessions as a means of securing a ceasefire, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump presenting a plan to bring an immediate end to the war if he wins in November. Trump’s plan reportedly involves ceding territory to Russia, though specifics have not been provided. His vice presidential running mate, Senator JD Vance, has openly endorsed territorial concessions as part of a potential peace deal, raising concerns among Ukrainians about the future of the conflict.
Following President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not be seeking reelection in 2024, all eyes turned to Vice President Kamala Harris as a potential Democratic candidate to take on Donald Trump in the upcoming election. If confirmed as the candidate, Harris’s presidency could bring about significant changes for Ukraine. With Biden’s support, Ukraine received critical backing in its conflict with Russia, including military aid and diplomatic support. The implications of a Harris presidency for Ukraine remain uncertain, as her stance on foreign policy and relations with Russia differ from Biden’s approach.
The KIIS poll also revealed that a majority of respondents believe the most acceptable conditions for peace in Ukraine would involve regaining all occupied territories and joining the EU without joining NATO. This proposal garnered the highest level of support at 62%. Another proposal, which involved ceding control of certain regions to Russia but regaining full control of others while joining both NATO and the EU, came in second place at 53%. The survey highlighted the complexities of finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, with the need for convincing security guarantees and a focus on safety as key priorities for Ukrainians when considering peace agreements.
With shifting attitudes towards territorial concessions and external pressure mounting on Ukraine to accept such concessions, the future of the conflict in Ukraine remains uncertain. The implications of potential peace agreements and the involvement of key political figures, such as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, have raised concerns among Ukrainians about the direction of the conflict. As the debate over peace agreements continues, Ukrainians prioritize safety and security guarantees in any potential resolution, emphasizing the importance of a strong security configuration to ensure lasting peace in the region.
