The operation in Rafah, Israel, is seen as a microcosm of the ongoing fight in Gaza, lacking a clear strategic goal. While it could potentially benefit Israel by achieving a more favorable hostage deal or cease-fire agreement, it may ultimately backfire. The IDF has taken control of areas in Rafah, aiming to stop arms smuggling and weaken Hamas, but the risks of the operation escalating are high.
Tensions with Egypt have worsened due to the operation, with fears of a possible exodus of Gazans into Sinai. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has also been exacerbated, with thousands being displaced and limited supplies reaching the region. Without a clear postwar plan for Gaza, any military achievements may be short-lived, as seen in the resurgence of Hamas in the northern part of the Strip after IDF withdrawal.
Hamas may decide to harden its positions in response to the operation, potentially prolonging the conflict and leading to further civilian casualties. Israel’s international standing is also at risk, with global condemnation and diplomatic pressure mounting. The political motivations behind the operation, particularly for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, may not align with the country’s best interests.
Mr. Netanyahu’s attempt to cater to his political base and coalition partners, while also navigating international pressure and hostage negotiations, could hinder the success of the Rafah incursion. The focus should be on creating a clear political vision for Gaza post-conflict and avoiding a full-scale invasion, which could have dire consequences for both Israelis and Palestinians. Overall, the success of the operation hinges on maintaining a balance between military objectives and long-term political goals.
