In recent weeks, U.S. diplomacy regarding the Gaza war and relations with Saudi Arabia is presenting Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a crucial decision: choosing between an invasion of Rafah or seeking normalization with Saudi Arabia. The option of a full-scale invasion of Rafah to eliminate Hamas without a clear exit strategy or political solution for Palestinians would worsen Israel’s global isolation and strain relations with the Biden administration. On the other hand, pursuing normalization with Saudi Arabia, involving an Arab peacekeeping force in Gaza and a U.S.-led security alliance against Iran, could offer Israel significant benefits but also require a commitment to working towards a Palestinian state with a reformed Palestinian Authority.
The choice facing Israel is one of the most pivotal in its history, yet there is a lack of Israeli leaders helping the public understand the implications. The trauma of recent Hamas attacks has fueled a desire for revenge among many Israelis, overshadowing the civilian casualties in Gaza and the absence of an exit plan or Arab partner for the aftermath of the war. The pursuit of total victory without a clear strategic vision risks prolonging the conflict, driving Israel into a state of indefinite occupation, and pushing it further into isolation, to the benefit of its adversaries.
It has become evident that a swift elimination of Hamas is unattainable, and the continuation of the conflict is against the interests of moderate Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prefers a rapid Israeli withdrawal from Gaza to avoid further civilian casualties and regional instability. The U.S. administration shares this perspective, advising against a large-scale invasion of Rafah and emphasizing more targeted actions against Hamas leadership to minimize civilian losses and prevent a protracted conflict resembling the U.S. experience in Iraq.
The Biden administration is urging Israel to forgo a major offensive in Rafah without a credible plan to protect civilians and transition to a sustainable security arrangement. Instead, the U.S. proposes a diplomatic-security agreement involving an Arab peacekeeping force, a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact, and a joint effort to counter Iranian threats. This comprehensive approach aims to secure long-term stability in the region, enhance Israel’s security, and pave the way for regional normalization. However, the success of this alternative pathway hinges on Israel’s willingness to prioritize a two-state solution with a reformed Palestinian Authority over a pursuit of total victory in Gaza.
In the face of growing international pressure and humanitarian concerns, the Biden administration warns that a large-scale Israeli offensive in Rafah risks jeopardizing crucial security agreements and undermining prospects for peace and regional stability. By highlighting the benefits of aligning with Saudi Arabia and advancing a U.S.-led security coalition, the U.S. seeks to present Israel with a clear choice between a dead-end in Gaza and a path towards greater security and normalization with key Arab states. Ultimately, the decision rests with Israel, but the consequences of choosing the road to Riyadh or Rafah will reverberate regionally and globally. It is essential for Israeli leaders to engage with the public and convey the significance of this momentous decision for Israel’s future.
