The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia are in the final stages of negotiating a mutual defense treaty, but there are still some key points that need to be settled. These include control over Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear energy program, the nature of the mutual defense component, and a commitment for Saudi Arabia to continue pricing oil in U.S. dollars. Another crucial aspect of the deal is for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, which is seen as essential for gaining support in Congress. However, this will only happen if Israel agrees to certain conditions, such as withdrawing from Gaza, halting the building of settlements in the West Bank, and working towards establishing a Palestinian state.
There are many uncertainties in this equation, especially given the current political situation in Israel with Prime Minister Netanyahu aligning himself with the far right. It is unlikely that Netanyahu will agree to a Palestinian statehood plan that could endanger his position, unless his political survival depends on it. As a result, U.S. and Saudi officials are contemplating finalizing the deal and presenting it to Congress with the condition that Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel once the terms are met. However, no decision has been made yet, as Israel is currently facing internal turmoil and international criticism.
The hope is that if there can be a resolution to the ongoing conflict and the return of all Israelis taken hostage, Israel may hold new elections. This could offer Israelis a different choice beyond Netanyahu or no Netanyahu, but rather a path towards peace with Saudi Arabia and the Palestinians. The potential benefits of normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, the most influential Muslim and Arab nation, are significant and could have long-term political and economic advantages for Israel. However, convincing Israelis to consider this option amidst the current challenges remains a difficult task.
The Biden administration and Saudi officials are aware of the complexities involved in reaching a comprehensive agreement that satisfies all parties. The ongoing violence in Gaza and the growing toll on both Israelis and Palestinians highlight the urgent need for a permanent peaceful solution. If a deal can be reached that addresses the concerns of all sides and offers a credible pathway to peace, it could potentially change the dynamics in the region and pave the way for improved relations between Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Palestinians. The stakes are high, and the decisions made in the coming months will have far-reaching implications for the Middle East and beyond.
