Donald J. Trump and Ron DeSantis have turned Florida into a Republican stronghold, but recent polls showing a tightening presidential race in the state has given Democrats hope. The announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appearing on the ballot has added unpredictability to Florida’s politics. Democrats are hopeful about ballot measures on abortion rights and recreational marijuana legalization, along with President Biden’s popularity with seniors and Senator Rick Scott facing a tough re-election contest. However, winning Florida back from Republicans will be challenging.
Despite some positive signs for Democrats, Republicans have a strong grip on Florida. Trump won the state twice, and Republicans dominated the midterms. The only Democratic wins have been small victories in local races. Recent polling shows a narrowing gap between Republicans and Democrats, but the GOP remains strong in the state. Trump’s campaign is confident in maintaining conservative support and expanding his base among young, Black, and Hispanic voters in Florida.
Democrats face structural disadvantages in Florida, including a weak state party, low voter registrations, and lack of national party investment. Some strategists believe that talk of a Democratic comeback is just wishful thinking. The Republican Party of Florida has deep connections with Trump’s campaign and is not concerned about the impact of ballot measures on the electorate. Democrats are banking on opposition to DeSantis’s policies and hope to capitalize on liberal issues to boost turnout.
The Biden campaign is increasing its presence in Florida, focusing on the abortion ban issue. However, Florida voter registrations favor Republicans, making it challenging for Democrats to make significant gains. The state may require bipartisan support for amendments to pass, given the 60 percent threshold for constitutional amendments. Organizers of the abortion amendment campaign are looking to build a diverse coalition but are not explicitly aiming for Democratic support.
While abortion measures have energized voters in other states, there is skepticism about their impact in the heavily Republican Florida. Democrats fear further demoralization if unrealistic expectations are set by party leaders. DeSantis has declared that Florida is now a Republican state, signaling the uphill battle for Democrats. Despite some glimmers of hope, Florida remains a tough battleground for Democrats, with the GOP holding a strong position in the state’s politics.
