Oddsmakers are already setting bets for the 2028 presidential election, with Vice President-elect JD Vance being a top contender with a 40 percent chance of winning according to Bookies.com and a 25 percent chance according to SportsBettingDime’s William Hill. Other potential candidates high on the list include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former first lady Michelle Obama, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. On the other hand, Hill considers former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and conservative commentator Tucker Carlson as potential nominees.
Betting markets surged during the 2024 presidential race, with many accurately predicting President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris to become the 47th president of the United States. Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi gave Trump a 62 percent and 58.6 percent chance of winning a second term, respectively. Following Trump’s victory, odds for the 2028 election were released immediately, with many sites favoring Vance as the potential 48th president of the U.S. Other names such as Newsom, DeSantis, and Obama were also high on the lists of oddsmakers.
According to Bookmakers Review, betting platforms have accurately predicted the outcomes of 77 percent of elections over the last 35 years. The only exception was in 2016 when Trump beat Clinton in his first presidential campaign, despite having worse odds. An anonymous online trader known as the “Trump whale” reportedly made around $48 million from betting on Trump’s victory. The bettor, identified as a French former bank trader named “Théo,” placed over $30 million in bets and commissioned his own “neighbor polls” to inform his choices. Théo was linked to 11 Polymarket accounts that made more than $84 million in total.
Various oddsmakers have differing predictions for the 2028 election, with Thompson suggesting that Vance has the best chance of winning at 40 percent, while Hill gives him a 25 percent chance. Harris has a 7.7 percent chance according to Thompson, while Hill predicts a 3.8 percent chance for her. Gabbard, Clinton, and Carlson are also considered as potential nominees by Hill, alongside Vance, Newsom, DeSantis, Obama, Shapiro, and Beshear. It will be interesting to see how these predictions pan out in the coming years as the 2028 presidential election draws closer.
In conclusion, with bets already being placed for the 2028 presidential election, it is clear that predictions are being made early with Vice President-elect JD Vance emerging as a top contender according to various oddsmakers. The accuracy of these predictions remains to be seen, but past trends suggest that betting platforms have a good track record in forecasting election outcomes. As the political landscape evolves and new candidates emerge, the odds and predictions for the 2028 election may shift, providing an interesting glimpse into the future of American politics.
