New Mexico voters will have their say in the presidential and state primaries on Tuesday, which will be among the final contests for both parties. Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have been their parties’ presumptive nominees since March. New Mexico has traditionally voted Democratic in presidential elections, but downballot races have been more competitive, particularly in the state’s congressional districts. In 2022, Democrats took all three districts, with a closely watched rematch expected in the 2nd District between Rep. Gabe Vasquez and former Rep. Yvette Herrell. The sole contested U.S. House primary on the Republican side is in the 1st District, where Louie Sanchez and Steve Jones are vying to challenge incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury. Additionally, there are several contested state Senate and House primaries on the ballot.
The New Mexico state and presidential primary will take place on Tuesday, with polls closing at 9 p.m. ET. The primary will include coverage of the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, one U.S. House primary, and 41 state legislative primaries. Biden, Marianne Williamson, and an uncommitted option will be on the Democratic ballot, while Trump, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, and an uncommitted option will be on the Republican ballot. New Mexico has a closed primary system, meaning only registered party members can participate. Delegate allocation rules for the Democratic primary will follow the national party’s standards, with 34 pledged delegates at stake. The Republican primary will have 22 delegates, and while they are unbound, the party expects them to vote in line with the primary results.
In the presidential race, Biden and Trump are expected to be the frontrunners in their respective primaries. A protest vote against Biden may be stronger in Democratic-leaning areas like Santa Fe and Albuquerque, while any protest votes against Trump are likely to be concentrated in the same regions due to Haley’s support in Democratic areas. The AP does not make projections until it is clear that trailing candidates cannot close the gap. In New Mexico, close races may trigger an automatic recount for federal races with a margin of 0.25 percentage points or less, and state legislative races within 0.5 percentage points. The AP may declare a winner if the lead is too large for a recount to change the outcome.
Turnout and advance vote numbers will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the primaries in New Mexico. As of April 30, the state had over 1.3 million registered voters, with a higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans. The 2022 primary saw low turnout but a significant number of ballots cast before Election Day. The vote-counting process is typically swift, with results reported shortly after polls close. The AP will continue to cover any developments, such as candidate concessions and declarations of victory, while ensuring clarity about race calls. With the general election still months away, the focus is on how the primary results will shape the political landscape in New Mexico leading up to November.
