Republican pollsters, strategists, and consultants in California believe that demographic changes and new efforts to reach voters of color have shifted the balance of power in favor of the Republican party. They point to victories by minority candidates like Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel in 2020, as well as Mr. Valadao’s close victory that same year. Some also believe that the presidential race could inflate turnout among Republicans, leading to potential wins in upcoming elections. Registration records show a growing Republican voter base in the Central Valley districts represented by Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte, exceeding the narrow margin of victory in the 2020 races.
Despite the common belief that people of color tend to lean more progressive, the Latino community in the Central Valley districts is showing an inclination towards electing conservative candidates. This trend has been seen through the election of more conservative candidates, such as Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte. City Council member Rachel Hernandez, who is running for mayor, sees this as a warning sign for Democrats to pay attention to the nuances of the Latino electorate. She suggests that similar tactics to those planned by Battleground California should be used, such as molding a message for the specific needs of the community and working with staff and volunteers who represent the community.
Republican campaign consultant Cathy Abernathy believes that Mr. Valadao will win the upcoming elections, largely due to the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot. She points to the growth of the Republican voter base in the Central Valley districts and the potential influence of minority candidates like Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel in 2020. These factors, along with the potential inflation of turnout among Republicans due to the presidential race, suggest a positive outlook for the Republican party in California. Additionally, the use of specific messaging and community representation could further bolster their chances of success.
While Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte declined interview requests, the Republican party in California seems optimistic about their chances in the upcoming elections. The growth of the Republican voter base in the Central Valley districts, along with wins by minority candidates like Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel in 2020, have contributed to this optimism. City Council member Rachel Hernandez also notes the trend of the Latino community in the Central Valley electing more conservative candidates, signaling a potential shift in political preferences. With the use of targeted messaging and community representation, Republicans in California are hopeful for success in future elections.
The 2020 victories of minority candidates like Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel have given the Republican party in California a boost in confidence. Republican pollsters, strategists, and consultants believe that these wins, along with demographic changes and new efforts to reach voters of color, have shifted the balance of power in their favor. Registration records show a growing Republican voter base in the Central Valley districts, which could provide a significant advantage in the upcoming elections. The trend of the Latino community electing more conservative candidates also suggests a potential wave of support for Republicans in California.
Overall, the Republican party in California is anticipating success in the upcoming elections, particularly in the Central Valley districts represented by Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte. The presence of Donald Trump on the ballot is seen as a key factor in potential victories, along with the growth of the Republican voter base in these districts. The trend of the Latino community electing more conservative candidates has added to the optimism of Republicans in California. By utilizing targeted messaging and community representation, they hope to secure wins in the upcoming elections.
