Recent polls in Arizona indicate a close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential election, with Trump holding a slight edge in most surveys. Immigration has emerged as a core issue for voters in the state, which has 11 Electoral College votes and is crucial for both candidates to secure victory. The latest data shows Trump leading Harris by 1 point in a poll conducted by AtlasIntel, while a Morning Consult poll for Bloomberg News gives Harris a 3-point advantage.
In contrast, a Fox News poll sponsored by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research shows Trump leading Harris by 3 points among likely voters and 2 points among registered voters. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll gives Trump his biggest lead yet in the state, with a 6-point advantage over Harris. The FiveThirtyEight polling average as of September 30 shows Trump with a slim 1.1-point lead over Harris in Arizona.
Immigration has been a key issue for voters in Arizona, with 21 percent citing it as their primary voting concern. Harris visited the U.S.-Mexico border on September 27 as part of her campaign efforts, highlighting her immigration policy which aims to revive a bipartisan border bill. The Hispanic vote is expected to play a critical role in determining the outcome in Arizona, with Harris leading Trump among Hispanic voters in the state.
The presidential race in Arizona differs from the state’s Senate race, with Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego holding a comfortable lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake, according to the Fox News poll. There is also a significant number of voters planning to split their ticket, with Independents more likely to vote for Gallego but not for Harris, and Republicans following a similar trend. Only 3 percent of respondents said they plan to vote for both Lake and Harris, indicating interesting dynamics in the state’s political landscape.
Overall, the latest polls indicate a competitive race in Arizona between Trump and Harris, with immigration emerging as a key issue for voters. The state’s role as a battleground with 11 Electoral College votes makes it crucial for both candidates in their quest to secure the 270 votes needed to win the presidency. The differing results in various polls highlight the uncertainty surrounding the outcome in Arizona, as well as the potential impact of factors such as Hispanic voter turnout and ticket-splitting behavior among voters.
