Former President Donald Trump has closed the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris in Minnesota, with a recent poll showing him just 3 percentage points behind. The latest poll conducted by MinnPost-Embold Research revealed Harris leading Trump by just 48 to 45 percent, a slight shift from the previous month. The survey included 1,734 likely Minnesota voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. This narrowing margin is significant, considering that Minnesota has not supported a Republican presidential candidate in over fifty years.
The race in Minnesota seems to be a statistical dead heat, with results from consecutive polls falling within the margin of error. This trend reflects broader changes since President Joe Biden carried the state by 7 percentage points in 2020, a significant decrease from previous Democratic victories. The current race appears to have very few undecided voters, with only 2 percent in the October poll and 5 percent planning to vote for someone other than Harris or Trump.
Important shifts can be seen in independent voter preferences, a demographic that could impact the final outcome. While Trump led among independents in September, the margin has narrowed in the October poll, with the former president maintaining an advantage with 36 percent support compared to Harris’ 27 percent. The geographic divide within the state remains significant, with Harris leading in urban areas and Trump dominating in Greater Minnesota.
The gender gap plays a crucial role in the race, with Harris leading among women and Trump among men. These divisions seem to be influenced by differing policy priorities, with issues like abortion and inflation impacting voter preferences. Early voting patterns also indicate a potential outcome, with Harris holding a substantial lead among those who have already voted in October. The tightening race in Minnesota aligns with other recent polling trends, showing a decrease in Harris’ lead over Trump.
Despite Minnesota’s history of supporting Democratic presidential candidates, recent elections suggest a potential shift in this trend. Recent polls have shown a close race between Harris and Trump, indicating that the traditional blue wall in Minnesota may be showing signs of weakening. Harris has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, further solidifying her ties to the state. With the election drawing closer, the outcome in Minnesota remains uncertain, with both candidates actively competing for the state’s electoral votes.
