The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of their NBA Western Conference semifinal series on Tuesday night. The Thunder opened as 3.5-point favorites, with the point spread remaining unchanged since opening. However, the total has increased from 214.5 to 218.5, indicating a faster pace of play for the Thunder. Despite this assumption, the Thunder’s playoff performance suggests otherwise, making it risky to trust that move. In this preview, we explore why bettors should approach this game cautiously and target key props that could determine the series winner.
Analyzing the Mavericks against the Thunder, the series appears to be a pick’em with Dallas at even money and the Thunder as slight favorites. The Mavericks’ previous losses to the Thunder this season can be attributed to missing key players in each game. The addition of players like P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline has boosted the Mavericks’ defense significantly, improving their rebounding and overall performance. With several unknown factors, this series presents an interesting matchup with potential for surprises.
The Thunder’s style of play relies on a fast-paced tempo, ranking fifth in the league during the regular season. However, their pace slowed down significantly in the first-round series against the Pelicans, with a drop in offensive efficiency. OKC’s lack of size makes rebounding a challenge, ranking 27th in the category. To compensate, the Thunder focus on generating pace through turnovers and fastbreak opportunities. While effective against the Pelicans, slowing down the game and relying on halfcourt offense could expose a weakness in OKC’s strategy against the Mavericks.
In terms of betting opportunities, focusing on rebounding props could be lucrative in this matchup. The Thunder, despite their rebounding deficiencies, share the responsibility well on the boards. Coach Mark Daigneault is likely to emphasize rebounding in Game 1 preparation. This presents a chance to target better numbers on rebounding props, given the expected higher-scoring nature of the game. Prop bets like Aaron Wiggins over 3.5 rebounds + assists and Chet Holmgren over 8.5 rebounds could offer value, considering the matchups and potential for a competitive game.
Aaron Wiggins has been consistent in contributing on the stat sheet, exceeding his prop numbers in nine straight games. His playoff performances have been better than his regular season averages, making him a strong choice for rebounding and assists. Chet Holmgren, a 7-foot-1 center, should also excel in the rebounding department against the Mavericks’ frontcourt players. Against a lighter lineup, he is expected to dominate on the boards and exceed his prop numbers with ease, making him a viable betting option for this game.
