As the transit deal between Ukraine and Russia for gas is set to expire at the end of the year, talks are ongoing between Europe, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan to find alternative solutions. Despite reports suggesting a possible agreement with Azerbaijan, the CEO of Ukrainian state-owned Naftogaz stated that no deal is currently on the table. Ukraine has made it clear that they will not renew any transit deal with Russia once the current contract expires. European countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary are heavily dependent on Russian gas imports and are exploring options to ensure a steady gas supply after the transit deal ends.
European firms were reportedly in negotiations with Azerbaijan to secure up to 12-14 billion cubic meters of gas per year, but a Slovakian state-owned gas importer denied this claim. While Azerbaijan currently supplies Europe with around 12 billion cubic meters of gas annually, the goal is to increase this to 20 billion cubic meters by 2030. However, Azerbaijan faces challenges as it has no excess gas available in the near term and has been importing gas from Russia and Turkmenistan. Talks are ongoing between Azerbaijan, the EU, Moscow, and Kyiv regarding the transportation of Azeri gas, which could potentially replace Russian gas flows through Ukraine.
With the impending end of the gas transit deal between Ukraine and Russia, countries that rely on Russian gas, like Hungary, are considering increasing gas purchases from Gazprom. The cessation of gas transit through Ukraine will impact countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary, which are heavily reliant on Russian imports. The potential shift to Azeri gas as a replacement for Russian gas is being explored, with plans to ramp up gas supply to Europe. Azerbaijan’s President mentioned negotiations with the EU, Moscow, and Kyiv to transport Azeri gas, which could technically be Russian gas rebranded as Azeri gas.
In light of the changing energy landscape in Eastern Europe, an international conference titled ReBuild Ukraine 4.0 will take place in Warsaw, Poland, to discuss the rebuilding of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Scheduled for November 13-14, 2024, the conference aims to address the challenges and opportunities in Ukraine’s energy sector post the expiration of the transit deal between Ukraine and Russia. The conference will bring together experts, policymakers, and industry stakeholders to explore ways to enhance energy security and resilience in Ukraine. The event reflects the growing importance of diversifying energy sources and transit routes in the region to ensure stability and sustainability in the energy sector.
Overall, as the transit deal between Ukraine and Russia for gas comes to an end, discussions are ongoing to secure alternative arrangements for gas supply to Europe. The potential transition to Azeri gas as a replacement for Russian gas is being explored, although challenges exist due to Azerbaijan’s current gas supply limitations. European countries heavily reliant on Russian gas imports are considering their options and preparing for the impact of the transit deal’s expiration. International efforts, such as the ReBuild Ukraine 4.0 conference in Warsaw, aim to facilitate dialogue and collaboration on rebuilding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and enhancing energy security in the region. It is crucial for stakeholders to work together to address the evolving energy dynamics and ensure a stable and sustainable energy supply for the future.
