The Basques are heading to the polls this Sunday, and while the presidency of the PNV does not seem to be in danger, polls depict a scenario in which nationalists could lose the election in terms of votes for the first time and be surpassed by EH Bildu. The dominance of the PNV, as shown in the map of results from all Basque elections, has been evident in the 12 elections that have taken place. The party has consistently been the top vote-getter and has controlled the Lehendakaritza in 11 out of 12 legislatures, with an interruption only during the coalition government led by Patxi López in 2009.
The PNV’s dominance has fluctuated over the years, with the party typically receiving between 35% and 40% of the vote in most elections, except for the 1990s following the split of Eusko Alkartasuna. This breakaway party, led by former lehendakari Carlos Garaikoetxea, garnered around 10% of the vote in the subsequent four elections until 2001 when it returned to running in coalition with the PNV. In addition to votes for these two parties, the nationalist movement has also gained support from left-wing independentist parties, with EH Bildu currently representing this space and garnering 28% of the vote in the last elections.
The growth of nationalist parties’ votes has been observed since 2009, both in large and small municipalities. In towns with less than 10,000 inhabitants, they account for at least eight out of every ten votes. In some places like Amoroto (Bizkaia), they have never dropped below 95%. The most significant increase, however, has been seen in cities, where their support has risen from 38% in 2009 to 57% in 2020. Despite this surge, the growth of nationalists has not translated into an increase in the nationalist sentiment of the Basques, with a stable percentage of people feeling solely or more Vascil than Spanish.
The support for independence has also decreased, with only 13% of Basques preferring an independent state now compared to 18% in 2015. In the latest polls, 37% would like more autonomy, and 36% are content with the current levels. In the last elections, the PNV and Bildu were the top choices in 252 out of 254 municipalities in the Basque Country, with only two towns having a different winner. The PNV has been the leading force in one of every three Basque municipalities, including major cities like Bilbao and surrounding areas.
Despite the PNV’s stronghold, there are also strongholds of other parties in certain municipalities. The PSE has managed to win in Ermua in 10 out of 12 elections, and in towns like Lasarte-Oria and others, they have been victorious on multiple occasions. It is essential to note that in a significant portion of the Basque territory, the PNV has consistently remained the top vote-getter, with no other party having won in every election in any single place.
