The electoral campaign in the Basque Country is coming to an end with uncertainty over who will win between the two nationalist parties, PNV and EH Bildu. However, it seems likely that the PNV-PSE alliance, which has been governing the region since 2016, will continue in power. The strong reaction of the Basque parties to the candidate of EH Bildu, Pello Otxandiano, regarding his past involvement with ETA has made it clear that EH Bildu will struggle to find conditions to govern. The apologies and recognition of past mistakes by Otxandiano have been seen positively, but it does not seem likely that EH Bildu will be able to govern easily.
The Socialist candidate, Eneko Andueza, has made it clear from the beginning of the campaign that he will not allow EH Bildu to take power, citing a code of ethics agreed upon by the PNV and PSE ten years ago. The PNV has also stated that they will not form a coalition with EH Bildu, emphasizing their differences in terms of memory and governance models. The option of a nationalist coalition government seems unlikely, despite being the second choice of Basque voters, with the PNV-PSE alliance being the preferred option.
The possibility of a left-wing alternative to the PNV-PSE coalition seems unlikely at this point, with the PSE rejecting the idea and other parties not having enough support to form a government. The viability of the PNV-PSE option is supported by the fact that it is the preferred choice of Basque voters and the willingness of the current allies to continue governing together. However, there is a possibility that the PNV and PSE may not have enough seats to form a majority government, in which case they would need support from other parties.
The tensions between EH Bildu and the Socialists over the issue of ETA’s past actions have created some difficulties, but it is unlikely to affect their parliamentary support for the national government. EH Bildu has benefited from its parliamentary support, and the right-wing media has helped to portray them in a positive light despite their past. The possibility of a government coalition between the PNV and PSE, with support from other parties, remains a possibility, although it may face challenges in terms of stability.
The recent events regarding EH Bildu’s stance on ETA’s past have caused some political and media uproar, but may not have a significant impact on the electoral situation in the Basque Country. The focus on the memory of the past terrorist activities has brought attention to the candidates, but may not sway the younger Basque voters who tend to support EH Bildu. The emotional impact of recent events, combined with the ongoing political debates, may influence the undecided voters in the final hours leading up to the election.
Despite criticism from politicians like Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who have tried to blame the national government for the situation, the reality is that the political landscape in the Basque Country is complex and multifaceted. EH Bildu’s recent missteps may have repercussions, but it remains to be seen how they will affect the election results. The PNV-PSE coalition seems poised to continue in power, but the final outcome will depend on the support of other parties and the decisions of the electorate.
