Four states are holding primaries, where California voters will choose a replacement for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, giving Republicans a larger majority in the House. Republicans in Washington, D.C., will benefit from a new member from California’s 20th District, with Assemblyman Vince Fong and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux competing in a special election. The winner will increase the GOP’s majority to 218 members. Oregon, Georgia, Kentucky, and Idaho are also holding primaries for House races, with a focus on key battlegrounds and less competitive open seats. Polling times vary, with Oregon conducting mail-in ballots that must be returned or postmarked by Tuesday.
In California, all candidates are on the same primary ballot regardless of party affiliation, with the top two vote-getters moving on to a general election in a special election. The winner of the special election will serve out the rest of McCarthy’s term until the November general election. This reinforcement from California will allow Republicans to afford two defections in the House, rather than the current one. In Oregon, competitive House districts are seeing matchups being set for the general election, with divisions between GOP candidates in several districts.
Outside groups are becoming involved in Oregon’s primaries, particularly in the 5th District, where GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is facing a challenge from state Rep. Janelle Bynum. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken sides in boosting Bynum over attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, with outside groups launching ads to support their preferred candidates. In the 3rd District, a Democratic primary battle to replace retiring Rep. Earl Blumenauer is taking place, with high-profile candidates vying for the seat.
Several GOP primaries are worth keeping an eye on in Kentucky, Idaho, and Georgia, although the districts are not expected to be competitive in the fall. In Kentucky’s 4th District, GOP Rep. Thomas Massie is facing a primary challenge from critics, including attorney Eric Deters and Michael McGinnis. In Idaho, GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is facing a primary opponent, financial adviser Scott Cleveland, with outside groups providing support. In Georgia’s 3rd District, Trump’s endorsement is backing Brian Jack, with significant outside group spending in the race.
Overall, Tuesday’s elections in four states will shape the future House races and help determine the future lawmakers in key battlegrounds. Republican primaries in several states are generating interest and outside group involvement, adding a layer of competition to the races. The outcome of these contests will have implications for the balance of power in the House and potentially set the stage for more contentious battles in the November general election.
