The latest polling data shows that Vice President Kamala Harris only holds a 14-point advantage over former President Donald Trump among Latino voters, marking the lowest level of support for Democrats in four presidential election cycles. In previous elections, Democrats have enjoyed a much larger advantage, with a 33-point lead in 2020, a 38-point lead in 2016, and a 44-point lead in 2012 among Latino voters. However, a mix of polls suggests that Trump is gaining ground among Latino voters, who make up the largest racial or ethnic minority in the United States.
Despite Harris still holding a lead over Trump with Latino voters, the gap has narrowed significantly. The poll also found that Latino voters prefer Democrats to control Congress over Republicans by a margin of 54% to 42%, although this too has decreased compared to past election cycles. On specific issues, Latino voters favored Harris on topics such as treating immigrants humanely, abortion, and representing change, while favoring Trump on the economy, tackling inflation, and addressing the border. A majority of Latino voters also believe that immigration helps more than it hurts, with a significant shift from past opinions on the issue.
One factor driving Trump’s increased support among Latino voters appears to be Latino men, who are evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. This is a significant change from 2020 when Latino men favored Democrats by a wide margin. Latina women also shifted slightly towards Trump, although they still favor Democrats over Republicans. Prior to Harris taking over the top of the ticket, polls had already shown warning signs for President Biden with minority voters. Harris has emphasized the importance of earning the votes of different minority groups and not taking them for granted.
In an effort to court Hispanic and Latino voters, both Trump and Harris are scheduled to appear in dueling town halls with the American Spanish network Univision later this month. Trump will participate in a town hall from Miami on October 8, while Harris will do the same from Las Vegas on October 10. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino survey sampled 1,000 registered Latino voters between September 16-23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Despite Harris holding a slight lead over Trump in national polling and the Electoral College map, the narrowing support among Latino voters underscores the importance of appealing to this critical voting bloc in future elections.
