Democratic strategist James Carville is concerned about the Democratic Party’s declining support among young minority voters, particularly among younger blacks, Latinos, and people of color. He noted that these voters are leaving the party in large numbers, which is alarming as they are traditionally key Democratic voting blocs. In recent years, there has been a significant shift in the party affiliation of black and Hispanic adults, with fewer identifying as Democrats and more leaning towards the Republican Party.
A Gallup survey revealed that only 19% of black adults identified as Republican last year compared to 66% who identified as Democrats. This 47-percentage-point difference is the lowest in 25 years and has declined by 19 percentage points since 2020. Among Hispanics, 47% identified as Democrats and 35% as Republicans, down from 57% and 26% respectively in 2021. President Biden, like his party, has also seen a decline in support from black and Hispanic voters, with a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll showing a drop in his approval rating among these demographics.
Former President Donald Trump has gained ground among Hispanic voters and those under 35, according to polls released earlier this year. A New York Times and Siena College poll in March showed Trump leading Biden among self-described Hispanic voters and having the support of 23% of black registered voters. Carville stressed that Democrats need to highlight the potential consequences of electing Trump to another term in the White House, particularly for young black and Hispanic Americans whose lives may be impacted for the next 35 years.
Carville emphasized the need for strong advocacy to explain to young voters the stake they have in the upcoming election. He dismissed traditional Democratic talking points such as reproductive rights and environmental protections as less important than conveying the broader impact of their vote on their future. He believes that simply stating that the country has been built for them is not sufficient, especially given the challenging job market that young people are facing. Democrats must find a way to connect with these demographics and convince them that their future is dependent on the outcome of the election.
The warning from Carville underscores the urgency for Democrats to address the erosion of support among young minority voters. The party needs to formulate a strategy to communicate effectively with these key demographic groups and convey the consequences of their vote in the upcoming elections. With President Biden’s declining support among black and Hispanic voters and Republicans making gains among these populations, Democrats face a challenging road ahead. It is crucial for the party to engage with young minority voters and present a compelling case for why they should continue to support Democratic candidates in the upcoming elections. Failure to do so could have long-lasting consequences for the party’s electoral prospects.
