The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022, has seen sustained conflict for over two years, with Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering a special military operation in Ukraine. Despite initial expectations of a quick victory due to Russia’s larger military, the spirited defense effort from Ukraine, supported by Western aid, has prevented significant Russian gains. This prolonged conflict has led to concerns about the potential escalation of the situation, including the involvement of North Korean troops.
Western leaders have expressed alarm over North Korea’s plans to deploy roughly 10,000 troops to Russia, a move that is seen as a significant escalation in the conflict. The deployment of North Korean troops could potentially lead to technology transfers between Moscow and Pyongyang, which could impact nuclear weapons and missile programs, influencing relationships in the Indo-Pacific region. However, an analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the number of North Korean troops being sent to Russia may not be sufficient to address Russia’s ongoing manpower concerns.
According to the ISW’s assessment, the deployment of North Korean troops may only cover around 10 days of Russian troop losses if they face similar casualty rates. This raises doubts about the sustainable nature of North Korea’s commitment to the conflict, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be reluctant to expose his forces to high casualties indefinitely. Despite these concerns, it remains unclear how Russia intends to utilize the North Korean troops in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The lack of regular modern warfare between major military powers has presented challenges for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite Russia’s initial plans for a swift takeover of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, the resistance put up by Ukraine, armed with weapons provided by NATO allies, has proven resilient. As Russia’s allies observe the performance of their weapons and systems in the conflict, providing troops to Russia could be a strategic move to gain valuable combat experience in modern warfare.
Reports indicate that North Korean troops deployed to Russia have been seen wearing Russian military uniforms, raising questions about their role in the conflict. South Korea’s intelligence agency has reported that an initial group of fighters, equipped with Russian weapons and uniforms, have arrived in Russia, with more expected to follow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged swift action from the U.S. and NATO allies to address the situation before North Korean troops become actively involved in the conflict.
