Two years into President Biden’s term, his aides initiated negotiations with Saudi leaders to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. However, talks stagnated when the Israel-Hamas war began in October. Efforts are being made to revive the deal by demanding more from Israel, including a cease-fire in Gaza and steps towards creating a Palestinian nation. American and Saudi officials believe they are close to finalizing a mutual defense pact and cooperation on a civilian nuclear program with Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan have engaged in discussions with Saudi leaders on these matters.
Despite the significance for Israel in establishing ties with Saudi Arabia, Israeli leaders have not shown any indication that they are willing to move forward with the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been resistant to the creation of a Palestinian state, citing concerns about security. The U.S. and Saudi officials are challenging Netanyahu by publicly stating that they are nearing an agreement that they will offer Israel. The proposed package includes a defense treaty, cooperation on a civilian nuclear program, advanced weapons sale, and a potential trade deal. However, Israel’s agreement to a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for finalizing any deal.
Saudi and American officials are working towards a comprehensive agreement that includes normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a U.S.-Saudi bilateral understanding, and progress towards an independent Palestinian state. While Saudi officials continue to insist on an Israeli commitment to a Palestinian nation, discussions are also underway regarding a potential “plan B” focused on the bilateral deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. However, achieving a sustainable cease-fire in Gaza remains a significant hurdle as Israel has not committed to one, and they have intensified strikes in Rafah.
The Biden administration views a deal involving a Palestinian state as crucial for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. President Biden has significantly departed from his previous stance on Saudi Arabia’s human rights violations, offering the country a mutual defense treaty modeled on pacts with other U.S. allies. The treaty’s conditions and Senate ratification are contingent on a robust Israeli-Palestinian component in the deal. Iran poses a significant threat to Saudi Arabia, and the treaty aims to clarify conditions for U.S. military intervention in defense of the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia seeks a commitment from the U.S. to limit cooperation with China and maintain oil purchases in dollars. The administration also hopes to secure Saudi commitment to prevent oil prices from surging, especially ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Prince Mohammed is keen on securing American cooperation for a civilian nuclear program and has expressed intentions to develop nuclear weapons if Iran does so. However, opposition from U.S. lawmakers and Israeli officials remains a significant challenge. The push for a bilateral deal underscores Prince Mohammed’s priorities, with Israel appearing peripheral in the negotiations.
